What if MH370 was (mistakenly or purposely) shot down?

We can’t rule out anything. Not even the most unbelievable of explanations: that Malaysia Airlines MH370’s Boeing 777 was downed by missile.

Since Mar. 7, when Boeing 777 9M-MRO flying from Kuala Lumpur has vanished enroute to Beijing, we have analysed all the possible scenarios that could explain the end of Malaysia Airlines MH370 flight.

With contradictory information released and denied on a daily basis, we can only update the list of theories and their likeliness.

None of the theories emerged so far seem to address all the mystery surrounding the plane and its 239 people on board: the theory that the aircraft suffered a smoke in the cockpit, does not explain why the pilots shut down the transponder while turning towards the nearest landing strip; the one about the suicide does not explain why the aircraft reportedly flew for 7 hours before eventually crashing somewhere. And so on.

These are just a few of the oddities you can find in any scenario drawn so far.

Regardless of the specific theories, there are some more things that are really hard to explain: for instance, it’s unclear how the MH370 managed to remain invisible to several air defense radars for so much time; the reason why Malaysian authorities did not declare until a couple of days ago that the last known position of the plane (known since the beginning) was over the Strait of Malacca, while some 100 aircraft and ships belonging to more than a dozen nations were involved in a massive search and rescue mission in the Gulf of Thailand.

Nor is it clear why Thai authorities waited 10 days before confirming that they had spotted a plane (most probably the Malaysia Airlines B777) flying westwards moments after MH370 had its transponder switched off.

In a previous post which listed all the “active scenarios”, we mentioned the (unlikely but not impossible) theory that MH370 could have been shot down.

Since then, we’ve received several emails and comments, and talked with a few other journalists who believe that, there are still some chances that the Malaysian Boeing 777 was shot down some time during its 7 hour flight.

Even if it’s at least far fetched, if we are ready to accept that an hijacked plane shadowed another wide body to escape detection by radars, something that would be difficult to execute and thus unlikely, we can’t but explore the scenario of the hijacked plane shot down by an air-to-air or surface-to-air missile.

Especially because several details would perfectly fit this theory.

Even if we don’t know the reasons, we know that MH370 went off radars and turned west because of a deliberate action by a skilled pilot.

Although they kept this information confidential for too much time, we know for certain that both Malaysian and Thai defense radar saw a primary target flying towards the Strait of Malacca.

Thereafter the plane disappears.

It may have taken a northern or a western route, to seek asylum, to land on a remote strip, to conduct a suicide attack, to deliver the plane to some terror organization. As already mentioned before, whatever route it took, the aircraft had all the features of the renegade plane (a civil wide body, hijacked and possibly used for a suicide attack) and as such was a threat to any nearby country’s air defense.

What if the plane, at low altitude headed towards a sensitive target in the region forcing a reaction by that country’s interceptors or surface-to-air missile batteries?

F-22 crosshairs

Image credit: U.S. Navy

This would explain why some governments have been reluctant to provide details or have released contradictory information in what seemed to be a sort-of cover up.

What if all this resistance was due to the need to cover an error or an action difficult to explain to the international community? What if the incoherent flow or information was purposely arranged to divert public attention away from the real cause of the crash until evidence was hidden?

We’ll let you elaborate more. Conspiracy theorists will be able to find many more details that perfectly fit this scenario (including SATCOM pings, ACARS, flight time, etc) and even point to specific targets (Petronas Towers, US base at Diego Garcia, are among those already suggested by several sources, experts, internet trolls etc.). History has taught us that airspace violations have some times ended with the downing of a civil plane.

We mentioned it just because we have discussed almost all possible scenarios and we can’t completely rule out this one until the wreckage (or the plane) is found and truth about the mysterious MH370 will eventually emerge.

Image credit: Daily Mail / Sky Vector

All the articles about MH370 can be read here (scroll down).


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About David Cenciotti
David Cenciotti is a journalist based in Rome, Italy. He is the Founder and Editor of “The Aviationist”, one of the world’s most famous and read military aviation blogs. Since 1996, he has written for major worldwide magazines, including Air Forces Monthly, Combat Aircraft, and many others, covering aviation, defense, war, industry, intelligence, crime and cyberwar. He has reported from the U.S., Europe, Australia and Syria, and flown several combat planes with different air forces. He is a former 2nd Lt. of the Italian Air Force, a private pilot and a graduate in Computer Engineering. He has written five books and contributed to many more ones.


  1. No proof but US warship Kidd was in the exact location where they claimed to find the debris before 14 March, while the Malaysian Government was directing the misleading search in the North. Secondly, some family members were able to ring the passengers’ phones 5 days after the plane claimed to be missing in the sky. So, it is possible the plane was landed somewhere and later being destroyed by one powerful country (after they recovered any unknown object from the plane). These 239 people were victim for the entire foul play. God bless them RIP and please punish the crusader. Like Chinese saying, those who killed by someone and died in the sea will come back to haunt you forever. If you happen to see any country hitting by natural disaster this year….you should know why!!

  2. More important today is the revelation of who is IMMAR-SAT? [this defense industry aerospace firm in UK with ties to Pentagon and Raytheon told the western media to suddenly quit looking for MH370, and the whole western world in a nanosecond has lost interest in MH370 !]

    Who is Inmarsat? DON’T FORGET KAL007 ! The two incidents smell the same! WHO was the AIRLINE TRAINER WHO TRAINED the MH370 pilot how to fly a 777? did he ever work for a Immarsat contractor?

    There is still no evidence of a Being 777 crash-landing.

    Suddenly incredible “debris sighting” based on information from one private British telecoms firm, Inmarsat, who run a fleet of 30 satellites globally overlapping with systems run by US-based Raytheon. Inmarsat claim to have come to their conclusion based on data “relayed between the plane and ground station by satellite”. Inmarsat sent its computer findings on Friday to the UK Air Accident Investigation Branch based in Aldershot, Hampshire, who in one day “going over the figures” before sending it to the
    Malaysian authorities.

    it seems incredible that would fly for 3 or more hours south, only to ditch the
    plane in the water miles from any land mass. This latest conclusion is based on
    data supplied by Inmarsat. No physical proof that Flight MH370 crashed at the
    location they are claiming it did.

    Inmarsat Plc is a major player in government, military, aviation satellite markets, partners with the likes of Honeywell & RAYTHEON.


  3. Just curious, but with several countries having laser cannon technology and limited test subjects. Could it be possible for terrorist elements to band together to test abilities to black out craft, fly to an area where possibilities of recovering any plausible evidence is slim to none, execute the hit, play three stooges body blocks of real information, while “they” are able to view satellite imagery of actual site for debris field/size of debris/time to “out of sight” of debris. This element would now have critical performance data on several new terrorist strategies and disappear into the night. We know from past events not all subjects in terrorist circles are privy to actual goals but mere pawns. Black out craft and fly this direction waiting for further instructions? Then bam… With our lack of military footprint, recent replacement of military key positions, and unknown/devious leadership in the US anything is possible. Would there be a way to actually detect a laser of this magnitude was fired? (Infared satellite imagery?) I doubt we will ever know anything really credible on this one….

  4. Here is the most likely scenario:

    A fire developed in the cabin or hold. Passengers were incapacitated. The pilots ditched, but the fire overcame everyone and no one escaped. The plane floated intact for 6 hoours and sent out pings to the satellite. This is why the arc indicating the possible path passes through the point where the transponder went out. The likelihood of the plane flying for 6 or 7 hours and crashing EXACTLY the same distance from the satellite (which is the only thing reliable in the analysis of the pings) is ZERO. Thus, the “arc” of last known position includes the point where contact was first lost – an impossible coincidence.

    So, what about the (almost nonexistent) radar data that suggest the plane turned? Another plan was flying across the area at about the same time. It was picked up briefly on radar. The 777 NEVER made a turn. It went down right there, floated for six hours with everyone incapacitated, then sank. The RELIABLE data support this. The unreliable “modeled” “data” based on 6 pings sent everyone on a wild goose chase.

  5. highly likely that it has been shot down because it went off course and didn’t reposnd to radio calls. Australia is wasting time looking in the indian ocean – it isn’t there!

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