While North Korean soldiers join Russia’s war against Ukraine, an apparent reciprocal deal to supply the reclusive regime with more fighter aircraft has been revealed by the U.S. INDOPACOM Commander.
Speaking at the 2024 Reagan National Defense Forum, an annual event held at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in California, Admiral Samual Paparo, Commander of the United States Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM) said that it is believed Moscow and Pyongyang have agreed to the transfer of MiG-29 and Su-27 fighter aircraft to North Korean forces. The number of aircraft involved in this deal is unclear.
Following reports towards the end of October 2024 that North Korea troops would assist Russian forces against Ukraine, the first confirmed deployments began to be evident from early November. It now appears clear that Russia will be offering its ally remuneration in exchange for this support.
Newer aircraft for North Korea’s air force
Though North Korea possesses a sizable number of aircraft at present, many of its active types are very old and outdated. Chinese derivatives of early Cold War Soviet aircraft like the MiG-17, MiG-19, and MiG-21 are reportedly still in service in significant numbers.
The North Korean air force, officially the Korean People’s Army Air Force, does already operate the MiG-29, its newest fighter aircraft, but in relatively small numbers with only around 35 airframes. It is likely that large portions of these actual fleets are not in fact available for active service.
Meanwhile, the Republic of Korea to the south operates a highly modern fleet of U.S. supplied jets including the F-35A Lightning II, F-16 Fighting Falcon, and F-15K Slam Eagle. A stealthy domestically produced fighter, the KF-21 Boramae, is also in development.
Backing up the Republic of Korea Air Force is a large U.S. Air Force presence, counting F-16s and A-10 Thunderbolt IIs among its current order of battle. The A-10s are soon to be withdrawn and no direct replacement has been announced, although nearby USAF forces in Japan are now being equipped with F-35A Lightning IIs. Practically, any situation where American forces in South Korea are called into combat would also see units based in Japan taking part, so the two basing locations complement each other.
The exact models of MiG-29s and Su-27s that North Korea will get remains to be seen. Although neither could be described as groundbreaking, the Su-27 in terms of maneuverability remains a formidable platform and still forms the basis for Russia’s primary fighter aircraft. However, the U.S. has gained considerable experience operating both the MiG-29 and Su-27 as aggressors, and the knowledge of how these aircraft can operate would undoubtedly be passed along to allied pilots.
Further transfers to come?
A greater worry for South Korean and allied governments would be whether this technology transfer is just the beginning of an overall modernization of North Korea’s military, which can be exploited by Russia as one of the few remaining outlets for its military equipment exports. Newsweek reported in recent days that Russia’s military exports have fallen up to 93% over the last three years.
Fear of falling foul of Western sanctions has contributed to this, alongside a perceived lack of performance demonstrated by many of Russia’s prized capabilities on the frontlines. Nations fear that long-term support for Russian products may not follow through, and that their orders would play second fiddle to significant domestic military needs for ammunition and other supplies.
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With a strong ally gone following the toppling of Bashar Al-Assad by a lightning fast rebel offensive, Russia will be looking to remaining friendly nations like Iran and North Korea more than ever to maintain any semblance of an export industry. In 2023, Kim Jong-un toured the Komsomolsk-on-Amur Aircraft Plant during an official visit to Russia, inspecting examples of both the Sukhoi Su-57 ‘Felon’ and Sukhoi Su-35 ‘Flanker-E’ (a development of the Su-27). Production for both of these aircraft types, which Russia has been eager to sell to overseas bidders, is centered at the facility.
The biggest hurdle to overcome would be production times. Compared to many Western aircraft types, the production line of the Su-35 is slow, and the Su-57’s is in comparison glacial – the number of operational aircraft delivered is still in the low double digits. Even if North Korea were to procure the ‘Felon’ now, by the time they enter service their opposite numbers in South Korea, Japan and the United States would be well equipped with fully operational fifth generation fighters.
There are, of course, other types of military equipment that Moscow might employ to sweeten the relationship. Seoul has already claimed that Russia has recently provided unspecified surface-to-air missiles to North Korea. North Korea’s current air defense missiles are largely of old Soviet designs, along with some reverse engineered derivatives of modern Russian systems, but having the real deal could offer additional capability.
Notably, though, a radar system that can form part of an S-300 or S-400 SAM battery, Russia’s most touted air defense platforms, was captured by Syrian rebels during the recent offensive. This may soon find, or may already have found, its way to NATO intelligence analysts who will use the find to determine the system’s capabilities and identify weaknesses.
Using captured Soviet/Russian radar equipment to develop tactics and technologies is a tried and tested technique for the U.S. and its Allies. As documented extensively on Dreamland Resort, the land around the Nevada Test Site is in fact home to many actual Russian radar arrays that can be used against the aircraft operating above.
They actually forgot a Podlet-K1 radar for an S300/S400 during their retreat.
Absolute shambles. A certain nation and multinational strategic alliance might be very interested in this. pic.twitter.com/kMlOIR9vHl
— Oliver Alexander (@OAlexanderDK) December 4, 2024
Regardless of advancements made by North Korea’s military, it remains likely that in any potential conflict they will be on the technological backfoot. Their strength still comes in their numbers, with enforced conscription pumping the military to over one million serving personnel. However, as noted above, this strength in numbers seemingly cannot currently be provided by the Russian defense industry.
