One of the most frequent questions I have received in the last days is: “how many aircraft are needed to provide a 24-hour cover of Libya?”. Obviously, who has asked the question was not interested in fighters needed to enforce the NFZ but in bombers for interdiction and CAS.
It’s not easy to answer this question, since there are many factors to be considered. Indeed, it is not only important to determine how many assets, but where the CAP/loitering areas must be established, how long the aircraft have to maintain the AOR (Area Of Responsibility), etc.
Basing on the information issued in one of the first press briefings by Pentagon, we know that 4 loitering areas for interdiction planes have been established in norther Libya (actually, over the sea in front of it). Most probably, they haven’t changed since NATO took over the command of the operations.
If we consider an “on station” time of 3 – 4 hours, on a daily basis, between 48 and 64 sorties are required to provide a continuos cover of the assigned areas. Let’s consider an average 56 sorties. Obviously, if a flight of 2 bombers is called to perform an air strike their area remains vacant and another flight must be moved to replace it (if not already flying, some assets could be kept in stand by and scrambled if needed) even if achieving a constant presence is almost impossible.
Since the sound of aircraft orbiting above the enemy troops or performing “show of force” flybys is an important deterrent (as shown in Afghanistan), first of all I’d move the loitering areas and repositiong them over the disputed cities (provided that they are still positioned above the sea). This would also reduce the transit time from the orbits to the target area.
That said, to strengthen NATO presence, just to make an example, NATO could add 2 more orbits to the 4 already used, placing them near Misratah (bringing the total in the area to 3) and in the Gulf of Sirte, off Brega, Ras Lanuf and Ajdabiya (bringing the total in the area to 2). On a tactical basis, aircraft patrolling on a certain area could be quickly moved to reinforce presence elsewhere. If we “translate” the new set up in number of sorties, to keep 6 orbits for 24 hours, NATO would need from 72 to 96 daily sorties. As said, this would not ensure a constant presence on the target area but at least it would improve the possibility to have the asset where and when needed. Obviously, all what I’ve written so far, makes sense if NATO is willing to use those additional planes to hit the Libyan troops hard, before it is too late. Otherwise it is not worth the effort: to set up 2 more H24 orbits more aircraft, more tankers and more support personnel are required.
On Apr. 21, President Barak Obama authorized the DoD to use armed MQ-1 Predators in Libya. This marks the end of the support role played since Apr. 4 by the US. The Predators were already operating over Libya but they flew reconnaissance flights without carrying any armament. The news is that, since Day 34, they are cleared to engage ground targets. Even if only 2 Predators will be used by the US military in Unified Protector (under NATO command) their impact could be relevant. For sure, they can loiter over a target area for some 15 – 16 hours (thus saving 4 conventional sorties) and, apart from attacking ground targets directly with AGM-114 Hellfire missiles, they can provide target description, buddy lasing and reconnaissance in favour of other allied planes.
Image credit: USAF
Still, as already explained many times in my daily debriefs, it is not only important how many assets are used in Unified Protector but how they are used: even if 2 more orbits could provide a better coverage of the norther part of Libya, the current 4, as explained by Paul Smyth in his “Libya: is NATO doing enough”
However, this does not explain the seeming periodic absence of NATO aircraft over the eastern battlefront, the apparent shifting of NATO emphasis between Misratah and other locations, or the UK decisions to reinforce the Tornado GR4 deployment and re-role some Typhoon air defence fighters to strike assets. Furthermore, on four days NATO figures indicate flying less than sixty strike sorties (fifty-eight on 3 and 4,fifty-six on 9 and fifty-four on 7 April); it is therefore highly unlikely that it provided a constant presence over key resistance areas whilst conducting interdiction duties elsewhere.
Other interesting things, information and thoughts:
1) In one of the past Debrief I’ve explained what I thought about the presumed missiles shortage reported by some media. According to the Daily Telegraph, the RAF was recently compelled to order more Brimstone bombs (read Day 7 Debrief for some details on this weapon) as a consequence of their intense and effective usage in both Libya and Afghanistan. The newspaper disclosed that more than 110 Brimstones have been fired since they were first used against Taliban in 2009 and an estimate of 60 were fired at armoured vehicles in Libya. Tornado GR4s flying Unified Protector missions within British Operation Ellamy, usually carry a single three-missile launcher for the Brimstone within a mixed configuration which includes also 500 lbs Paveway IV LGB and pod-housed targeting/reconnaissance sensors. If a large amount of them are used also in the coming weeks, the RAF risks having low stocks: without Brimstone, the Tornado GR4s would have to use the 500lbs Paveway II or the 1000 lbs Paveway IV used by the Typhoons.
More than 2,000 Brimstones were originally built to take on massed Soviet armoured divisions and were unable to discriminate between friend or foe vehicles. The MoD decided to convert more than 300 Brimstones into the “dual mode” under an urgent operational requirement and proved a huge success in Afghanistan where it can target individuals, buildings and fast-moving vehicles.
However, converting more bombs is a complex process taking a number of weeks. It is understood that the British manufacturers MBDA have been quietly asked to begin making more.
Following the success in Libya, other foreign countries, like US and France seems to be interested in the dual mode Brimstone, a 50kg (110lb) missile that is an extensive redevelopment of the Lockheed Martin AGM-114 Hellfire, optimised for release from fast moving platforms, that is considered “a unique munition capable of destroying manoeuvering targets”.
In the meanwhile, NATO has realeased an interesting video showing footage recorded by RAF Tornado and Typhoon targeting pods as the British plane struck Libyan communication installations of Gaddafi’s command and control network.
A RAF pilot recalled the first bombing mission with the Typhoon here.
2) Newspaper Aftenposten reported on Apr. 20 that RNoAF fired at least 12 % of NATO’s bombs against Gaddafi’s forces. Around 140 PGMs have been dropped against military targets since the beginning of Odyssey Dawn. Article also says the total number of missions passed 90 (even if, as suggest by Aksel Magdahl, that could be the actual number of sorties). Just a few days ago the RNoAF F-16 had dropped 100 PGMs, so an increase of 40 bombs since then would indicate an increase in tempo for the Norwegian F16s. A short video released by the RNoAF (as pictures below) taken from the F-16 Sniper pod is available here.
3) The brief Italian MoD press release on Apr. 22 informs that in the last 24 hrs the Italian contingent flew 6 missions (12 sorties): 3x Typhoons, 2x Tornados, 1x AV-8B+ Harrier. NATO flew on Apr. 20, 132 sorties (50 air strikes) bringing the total to 3.148 sorties and 1.311 strike sorties. Key engagements for Apr. 20 were: 2 heavy equipment transporters, 3 armored vehicles, 1 ammunition storage site near Tripoli, 2 tanks, 1 communication tower, 1 radar near Misratah, and 1 tank and 2 rocket launchers in the vicinity of Zintan.
4) The Swedish Air Force released an image of a Libyan airfield taken by a JAS-39 Gripen assigned to Unified Protector with the recce pod. Even if the location was not released I’m almost 100% the photo was taken at Misratah airport. You can compare the SweAF picture with the screenshot I took with Google Earth (obviously they were not taken on the same date….).
Since there’s no significant change in the battlefield nor any evident sign of an attempt to get out of the stalemate, the news of the day is that two photojournalists, Oscar-nominated filmmaker Tim Hetherington and Getty photographer Chris Hondros, were killed on Apr. 20, Day 33 of the war, after coming under mortar fire in Misratah. Hetherington, co-director of the Academy Awards-candidate documentary “Restrepo” on the Afghan War and Hondros were working together with other media representatives on Tripoli Street, one of the most important location in the third-largest Libyan city where fighting between rebels and Gaddafi’s forces is more fierce. The last Tweet from Hetherington, is dated Apr. 19, 12:46, and came from is Twitter for iPhone application: “@TimHetherington: In besieged Libyan city of Misrata. Indiscriminate shelling by Qaddafi forces. No sign of NATO”.
The Restrepo trailer:
Hence, although NATO said that allies planes have conducted numerous strikes against Gaddafi’s forces in and around Misratah, destroying over 40 tanks and several armoured vehicles, and many anti-aircraft systems “enabling our planes to operate more effectively in the area” Hetherington had seen no sign of NATO planes. On the contrary, he was a victim of that fire that, according to Gen. van Hum, was watched threatening civilians by allied pilots and consequently destroyed.
Is NATO doing enough? No, it isn’t. It’s not a personal opinion, it is what the situation in Libya shows.
That said, I would like to share with my readers also another thought. I acknowledge that, doing media relations at NATO these days must not be simple. However, I find irritating as well as useless a press release from NATO issued on Apr. 20 to advice Libyans to avoid Gaddafi’s forces.
Maybe NATO should explain something different. For instance, why after 32 days there are still fixed targets like ammunition depots to be hit, when these should be destroyed in the very first stages of an air campaign (just after making the enemy’s air defenses unserviceable). Anyway, below is the usual count of sorties flown in the previous 24 hrs:
Since the beginning of the NATO operation (31 March 2011, 08.00GMT) a total of 3.016 sorties and 1.261 strike sorties have been conducted. On Apr. 19, 139 sorties (62 air strikes). Key targets were: 2 Ammunition depots near Tripoli, 2 T-62 Tanks, 1 T-55 Tank, 3 Rocket launcher vehicles near Misratah, and 1 Surface-To-Surface (SSM) Missile Site near Sirte.
Other interesting things, information and thoughts:
1) An interesting update comes today from the French MoD. As you know, since Mar. 25, 2011, 4 French Mirage 2000-5s are operating from Souda Bay airbase in Crete, from where they conduct joint air interdiction missions with Qatari Mirage 2000-5s. Beginning on Apr. 18, 4 Mirage 2000Ds (like those in the French MoD released pictures below), which previously operated from Solenzara, in Corsica, were redeployed to Souda to conduct air interdiction missions and ground strikes from the Greek airbase. On Apr. 19, they were joined by two more Mirage 2000Ds. This redeployment in Crete can enhance the effectiveness of French combat aircraft by reducing the transit time to the area of operations, thereby reducing reaction times and increasing the amount of time spent on patrol. In total, from Apr. 19, 10 FAF planes are deployed to Souda: 4 Mirage 2000-5s and 6 Mirage 2000Ds.
On Apr. 20, 2 Mirage F1CR performed an emergency landing for fuel problems in Malta Luqa airport. The aircraft were refuelled and departed again to Solenzara later the same day. After the two defecting Libyan Mirage F1s, this is the second time Malta International Airport receives the unexpected visit by two Mirage F1s….
Source: Reuters
2) The Italian contingent in the last 24 hours flew 8 missions: 2x Tornados, 5x Typhoons, 1x AV-8B+s. Since the Italian Navy Harriers are involved in reconnaissance and air defense missions, many have asked in which configuration the AV-8Bs are flying over Libya. Even if I haven’t seen any picture depicting an Italian Navy jump jet so far, I think that, as many other assets involved in the enforcement of the No Fly Zone, they are flying with air-to-air missiles (AIM-120s/AIM-9s) but, since they are multi-role aircraft perfectly suitable for the air-to-ground role and for the CAS in particular, they are bringing also Litening pods on one of the underwing pylons to have a closer look at the overflown areas. The Litening has the possibility to transmit TV images in real time to a ground receiving station.
The picture below shows an AV-8B of the Marina Militare with a Litening pod under the right wing.
3) As said, the US are contributing to Unified Protector with support assets. Among them, some of the most important are the KC-135s and KC-10s deployed to Moron, Spain, providing air-to-air refueling to both American and allied planes. The aircraft belongs to the 313th Air Expeditionary Wing, which was given a nickname “Calico Wing” by the wing’s commander because, the multitude of colors of tail flashes on the 313th AEW ramp, looked like a Calico Cat (a domestic cat with a spotted or parti-colored coat).
As an example, a recently published photo from 313th AEW Public Affairs shows the various tail flash colors of the aircraft that might resemble the “spotted” coat of a calico cat. The illustration features aircraft tails from Air National Guard units in Nebraska, Utah, Ohio, Arizona, Tennessee, Illinois, Iowa and Pennsylvania. It also shows Air Force Reserve aircraft from Indiana and North Carolina, and active-duty aircraft from California, Kansas, North Dakota, Washington, Florida and New Jersey.
Although the battlefield is deadlocked, with fightings taking place more or less in the same manner at Misratah and other disputed cities along the northern Libyan coastline, with NATO being unable to prevent, for various reasons, Gaddafi’s forces to bomb civilians with rockets, heavy artillery and also cluster bombs.
From its point of view, NATO has kept up a high operational tempo. NATO Spokesperson, Oana Lungescu said:
Allied aircraft have flown well over 2.800 missions — an average of just over 1.000 a week. Almost half of them strikes. We have struck a broad range of targets — tanks and rocket launchers, armoured vehicles and ammunition sites. We are keeping up the pressure on the Gaddafi regime forces to stop their brutal onslaught against civilians. It’s a challenging task — but we are making significant progress in weakening Gaddafi’s ability to use his military machine against his own people.
That operational tempo has been matched by a high political tempo. Last week, as you know, NATO foreign ministers met in Berlin with our operational partners and reinforced the political impetus behind Operation Unified Protector. They re-stated full support for the mission. They committed to providing all the resources needed to do the job. And they agreed that they will do so until all attacks on civilians have stopped; until all of Gaddafi’s forces, including his snipers, mercenaries and paramilitary forces have returned to bases; and until there is full, safe and unhindered humanitarian access to all people in need of assistance.
[…]
So NATO and its partners are united, we are determined, and we are focused. We are doing what the UN has mandated — and we will continue to do so, for as long as it takes.
Gen. van Hum, chief of Allied Operations at SHAPE, explained that the arms embargo is comprehensive and effective. Since operation started NATO has checked 432 vessels and boarded 10 for further inspection and found no violations. Dealing with the NFZ, there were no violations from fixed wing aircraft since last week (does this mean that some violations from rotary wing assets occurred?). For what concerns the activities aimed at protecting civilians on the ground, the battlefield is “fluid, dynamic and always changing”. NATO is not only operating in Misratah, Zintan and Ajdabiya but across all Libya. It is currently hitting Command and Control facilities of the regime including communication infrastructures. Over the last 36 hours beginning on Sunday evening these communication nodes were the focus of a coordinated series of strikes aimed at degrading Gaddafi’s ability to command and direct with his forces. Still, nothing indicates that Gaddafi has any intention of disengaging from operations as his forces continue to use heavy weapons against civilians. Therefore NATO will continue with the air strikes.
In Misratah, NATO has been watching the situation over the past 10 days: “On the ground the situation fluid. The regime force have been indiscriminately rocketing and shelling the city causing widespread damages. The sea port was closed a few times due to repeated shelling and fighting in the area. Our forces have conducted numerous strikes against Gaddafi’s forces in and around Misratah. We have destroyed over 40 tanks and several armoured vehicles. In addition several anti-aircraft system were destroyed enabling our planes to operate more effectively in the area” he said. Allied pilots watched rocket launchers being used in the area to hit civilians and they destroyed them.
But there’s a limit to what can be achieved by air power to stop fighting in a city. We are taking every precaution to avoid causing civilian casualties by our own air ops. What we are doing is attacking regime’s ability to supply and sustain these attacks not just in the area of Misratah but across the country.
According to van Hum, there’s a good balance between enforcing the NFZ and interdicting the forces threatening civilians as the 1.200 air strike sorties represent over 40% of the total sorties flown.
Van Uhm said that the alliance has the necessary planes for the missions. He explained that there are planes constantly flying over Libya, day and night, gathering information about the forces on the ground and capable of directing other assets to strike them, when need. Furthermore, without going into specific details, he said that NATO already has “more assets” than last Friday when NATO officials said the NATO mission is short of about 10 aircraft and at a meeting of alliance foreign ministers. He refused to comment why NATO is not currently using helicopters and naval firepower for Unified Protector, answering once again that NATO has the required assets to fulfil the mission.
So, NATO rejects critics by saying that it is maintaining a high operational tempo and affirming it has everything it needs to execute the air campaign, to target the Gaddafi’s forces and to attack loyalist second echelon forces. Sorties conducted on Apr. 18 were 143, comprising 53 air strikes which hit, among other targets, 9 ammunitions bunkers and the HQ of 32nd Brigade in the vicinity of Tripoli, 6 surface to air missiles, 4 tanks, 3 air defence missile sites and 1 mobile rocket launcher in the vicinity of Misratah, 3 ammunition storage bunkers in the vicinity of Sirte, 3 tanks, 1 anti-aircraft weapon system and 1 armoured vehicles, in the vicinity of Zitan, and 1 building near Brega.
Ok, nice. However, as an analyst I can’t but notice that the impact of such strikes hasn’t had the expected result so, maybe it’s time to change something.
Other interesting things, information and thoughts:
1) Alvaro Muñoz-Aycuens (@Alvarito) sent me the following interesting update about the Spanish Air Force contribution to Unified Protector, with information released by the Ministry of Defense to get approval by congress to expand the mission for two more months.
Since the 19th of March to the 17th of April, the missions numbers are as follow:
The E/F-18M has made 45 CAP missions in which they have flown a total of 328 hours without the need to intercept any aircraft. The B707 tanker has done 22 missions and 134 hours, in all the AAR they have transferred a total of 453.000 liters of fuel to the F18 plus other alliance members.
The CAP mission lasst 4 hours, in which they operate in pairs on one of the 3 assigned CAP areas which according to the info involves 1 or 2 AAR. Meanwhile the B707 operations are almost daily on one single AAR area in which the missions last at least 6 hours. By a request of the NATO, because of the lack of tanker assets, they are going to add to the mission a C130 tanker. They say this doesn’t increase the spending assigned to the mission because of the reduction in CAP missions and will neither surpass the limits of assigned personnel which currently sits at 500 men.
Regarding the naval blockade and the support of the CN.235 SAR plane, since its mission start on March 23 has flown 12 missions clocking a total of 66 hours identifying 14 ships. These operations account for 25% of all the maritime patrol operations of Unified Protector.
Officially the name of the operation/detachment is “Argos”. Also they have authorize the mission to support the future humanitarian missions requested by the UN.
2) Italian contingent flew 6 missions (2 acft each) in the last 24 hours: 2x Tornados, 2x AV-8Bs, 2x Typhoons. Eurofighter released on the company’s official website some interesting pictures about Italian and British Typhoons involved in Unified Protector (the one above, showing a RAF Typhoon taking off from Gioia del Colle comes from Eurofighter webpage too).
The one below was taken, in my opinion, at the beginning of Odyssey Dawn and not recently as it shows an ItAF Typhoon landing in Trapani with 4 IRIS-T and 4 AIM-120 and “only” 2 (not 3 as seen in the last weeks) drop tanks.
3) The following Reuter picture, depicting Libyan horsemen shouting pro-Gaddafi slogans as they parade during a welcome ceremony for the African Union delegation at Tripoli’s airport on Apr. 10, 2011, is particularly interesting because it shows the Bombardier BD-700-1A11 “5A-UAB” sitting on the apron at Tripoli International Airport. The fate and current location of this bizjet, presumed to be used by the Libyan Government and possibly by Gaddafi and his close aides for both “domestic” and international flight, was unknown.
My Day 30 debrief, with some simple statistics about the number of air strikes conducted by NATO in Libya, opened a debate with the readers of this blog and Twitter followers. Someone asked me to compare the Allied Force strike sorties breakdown with the Unified Protector trends, just to have an idea of how the alliance is performing in respect to the previous involvement in Serbia and Kosovo war. The only possible answer is “better not trying to compare” since you’ll get a clear idea of a different strategy and an overall clear vision of the aims of the air campagn and the ways to achieve them.
In 78 days of air strikes, NATO flew 38.004 sorties (of 45.935 planned ones….in that area, in that period – March – June, the weather was a factor), 14.112 of them strike sorties. On average 487 sorties were launched each day, 180 being strike sorties, even if during the beginning phases of the war and towards the end, when the air strikes against the Serbian ground forces became more intense, the alliance flew more than 700 sorties every day with roughly one third being bombing missions. Some 20.000 PGMs were used along with some dumb bombs. Regardless the figures (for sure the Serbian military was a dangerous opponent), the operation in former Jugoslavia was focused on a quick achievement of the air superiority and a subsequent instense use of the air power against the ground targets.
Hence, comparing the two operations is useless; although, a look at Allied Force shows that, using the required resolve, NATO can be successful even when facing strong “enemies”.
Anyway, the “air strikes debate” urged me to extend the yesterday’s graphs including also the data I could recollect from the first US DoD press briefings on Odyssey Dawn, during which some figures about sorties and air strikes were released by Pentagon.
Below, a table with the information released so far (note, not all dates are available).
Date released
Total sorties
Air strikes
air strikes/total
22-mar
175
24-mar
130
49
38%
25-mar
153
91
60%
26-mar
167
88
53%
27-mar
178
107
61%
1-apr
178
74
42%
2-apr
174
74
43%
3-apr
184
70
39%
4-apr
154
58
38%
5-apr
150
58
39%
6-apr
155
66
43%
7-apr
164
73
45%
8-apr
155
54
35%
9-apr
156
60
39%
10-apr
133
56
43%
11-apr
154
70
46%
12-apr
158
59
38%
13-apr
159
60
38%
14-apr
153
58
38%
15-apr
146
60
42%
16-apr
145
58
40%
17-apr
144
42
30%
18-apr
145
60
42%
Here are the new graphs (note that NATO sorties are as of Apr. 18 and consider that March sorties are those effectively flown on that date and not those of the previous 24 hrs as NATO’s).
After reaching a peak of 107 air strike sorties on Mar. 27, the number of bombing missions dropped. The reason, if you check the figures seems to be that NATO has continued conducting more or less the same number of strike sorties even after US withdrew their bombers. For instance, on Mar. 27, the US flew 52 air strikes and coalition flew 55 air strikes that is around the average count of sorties flown by NATO since US put their bombers on stand-by status. So, a quick examination of this figures show that NATO has not filled the gap whe US withdrew, or at least it hasn’t completely filled it.
In the meanwhile, according to NATO, multiple air strikes targeted communications infrastructure and the headquarters of Gaddafi’s 32nd brigade 10 km to the south of Tripoli.
“NATO will continue its campaign to degrade the Gaddafi regime forces that are involved in the ongoing attacks on civilians,” the commander of the NATO operation, Lieutenant-General Charles Bouchard, said.
The question is: how long will it take considering the current sortie ratio?
Other interesting things, information and thoughts:
1) Italian Minister of Defense La Russa explained to Sec Def. Robert Gates that Italy will not change its mission and will not supply more planes to Unified Protector. Hence, the Italian pilots will continue flying “airshow” sorties and there will be no Tornado IDS dropping PGMs in Libya. I still can’t understand what will happen if/when a Tornado ECR will detect an active SAM radar site and will be asked to hit it with an AGM-88 HARM missile…..
Do you think it’s not going to happen because there are no more active radar sites in Libya? Yesterday, an US F-16CJ hit and destroyed 2 SAM sites near Tripoli in a SEAD mission bringing to 8 the total SEAD strikes since Apr. 1.
In the meanwhile, in the previous 24 hrs, the Italian contingent flew 5 missions (2 sorties each): 1x Tornado, 3x Typhoon, 1x AV-8B Harrier from Cavour aircraft carrier.
2) Giuliano Ranieri, after checking on Google Earth the location of a NATO air strike asked me what are the shelters almost hidden in the desert around coordinates 31°41’44.48″N 12°19’54.25″E. I wonder if they could be related to the underground storage facilities I wrote about yesterday and, while I hope that some of those OSINT experts reading this blog will be able to explain me what’s stored inside those shelters, I suggest you reading another old article that Richard Clements found and brought once again to my attention: Libya’s “Secret tunnels of death”.
A notice to the readers after 30 days of reports: I’m still deciding when the daily debriefs will have to switch to a weekly update. The amount of data and interesting facts is in fact decreasing each day while the comments you leave on each debrief and the email I receive are so interesting that they require a better analysis and more in-depth replies. For this reason, I suggest you reading the comments and replies on each debrief to follow the discussions that sometimes have become a continuation which add more interesting details to the daily reports.
In the meanwhile, beginning tomorrow, you’ll find the list of links to the previous reports on a dedicated page whose link will be the only one preceeding the daily recap. This should make the text easier to read (at least there will be no need to scroll down the page to find the beginning of the article).
Day 30 recap
The situation has not changed since Day 29. Interviewed by Al Jazeera, Major General Abdul Fatah Younis, commander of rebels troops in Libya called on NATO for “a more effective performance” saying that insurgents would break the siege of Misratah, if they receive gunship helicopters. Explaining that 6 Libyan military vehicles were hit during the battles between Ajdabiya and Brega, he said that they were destroyed by the “Ali al-Jabir brigade” of the Libyan rebel fighters: looks like the insurgents are at least somehow organized, with some brigades. As reported by AJE, commenting the fierce battles of Apr. 16, Gen. Abdul Fattah Younis said:
Targets were given for NATO to take out. Our forces then moved towards the east of Brega. We were surprised by a massive attack against us even though NATO had assured us there was no one there. We pulled back and directed NATO where to attack but they didn’t do anything.
Clearly, there must be some sort of poor coordination between NATO and rebel forces in spite of the small British military team, acting as a liaison team between rebels and NATO and advising anti-Gaddafi fighters on how to organise their command structure and communications.
A sandstorm (this time witnessed by local reporters…) prevented NATO planes from targeting Gaddafi’s forces allowing them to advance once again on the western edge of the city of Ajdabiya. Allies bombed Al-Hira, 50km south west of Tripoli and Sirte where probably the weather was better.
Needless to say, Misratah is still under heavy shelling: according to some source 1.000 died and 3.000 were wounded (80% civilians) in the loyalists attacks of the last weeks.
Other interesting things, information and thoughts:
1) Many readers and Twitter followers asked me to prepare a graph showing the trend in the air strikes vs overall sorties since the beginning of Unified Protector. Using the figures released by NATO, I prepared the following simple graphs which show a slight decrease in the number of air strikes flown by the allies in Libya. Noteworthy, on average, no more than 40% of sorties are air strikes: considering that “strike sorties are intended to identify and engage appropriate targets, but do not necessarily deploy munitions each time”, the amount of firepower dedicated to the enforcement of the NFZ (meaning fighters in Combat Air Patrol with air-to-air missiles) is excessive if compared to that capable of bombing ground targets, especially if we think to the almost complete lack of Libyan Arab Republic Air Force activity.
Since figures released by NATO refer to “the previous 24 hours” embracing 2 different dates, I thought it was better to use the release date as a reference.
Date released
Total sorties
Air strikes
air strikes/total
1-apr
178
74
42%
2-apr
174
74
43%
3-apr
184
70
39%
4-apr
154
58
38%
5-apr
150
58
39%
6-apr
155
66
43%
7-apr
164
73
45%
8-apr
155
54
35%
9-apr
156
60
39%
10-apr
133
56
43%
11-apr
154
70
46%
12-apr
158
59
38%
13-apr
159
60
38%
14-apr
153
58
38%
15-apr
146
60
42%
16-apr
145
58
40%
17-apr
144
42
30%
2) Richard Clements sent me the link to an interesting article, titled “Mysterious Libyan Pipeline Could Be Conduit for Troops”, published in Dec. 1997 by the NYT (you can read it here on the FAS website).
Here’s an interesting excerpt:
A tunnel of pipes 4 meters, or 13 feet, in diameter is large enough to accommodate military vehicles, even a rail line. When the project is completed, Libya will have more than 2,000 miles of tunnel stretching from Tunisia to Egypt. In the south, it will reach almost to Sudan and Chad, a country with which Libya has tense relations.
Every 50 to 60 miles along the pipeline, huge underground storage areas are being constructed, and the engineers said they are more elaborate than would be needed for holding water. The facilities, made of reinforced concrete, would be suitable for bivouacking troops or storing military supplies, including poison gas, the engineers said.
While the system of pipelines does not by itself change the military balance in the region, it provides Col. Moammar Gadhafi, the Libyan leader, extensive opportunities to conceal his activities from the American spy satellites that pass overhead each day.
“This is the first real evidence of something which has been suspected for several years,” Paul Beaver, a defense and intelligence analyst with Jane’s Defense Weekly, said when told of the engineers’ descriptions of the project. “Gadhafi seems to have taken a leaf out of Kim Il Sung’s book and created a potential military arsenal underground,” he added, referring to the late North Korean dictator.
North Korea has an elaborate underground military system with storage facilities and tunnel routes for vehicles and troops. Beaver, a former British army officer with intelligence expertise, said that the tunnel system would allow Gadhafi to conceal troop movements, gain an element of surprise over an enemy, and protect his own troops from pre-emptive strikes.
Other analysts are alarmed because the pipeline runs through a mountain called Tarhuna. This is where Gadhafi is constructing a chemical and biological weapons plant, American and European intelligence officials have said.
I don’t know if the underground storage was finished, however, the article reminded me of a few articles I’ve read of Italian workers describing Libyan underground military facilities in the desert. Even Tom Cooper of ACIG.org once told me something about a “huge underground depot” capable of containing an entire squadron of aircraft. The problem is not only what these storages contain, but how the hidden material could be used. Gaddafi’s forces have already bombed their own people with cluster bombs, what if they are able to collect chemical weapons possibly sheltered in one of these underground storage facilities?
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