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Operation Unified Protector (was Odyssey Dawn) explained (Day 36 – 38)

Previous debriefings: Archive

The Easter weekend was characterized by some interesting updates about Unified Protector operation in Libya. First of all, Gaddafi’s forces withdrew from Misratah, even if insurgents’ celebrations turned out to be premature. In fact, despite they have inflicted significant losses on loyalist forces, “victory” in the disputed third largest Libyan town is far from being achieved, as the violent attack from pro-Gaddafi forces following the withdrawal shows. There have been also some unconfirmed reports of Scud attacks on Misratah on Twitter, even if I didn’t find any (photographic) evidence yet. I’ve been told that Al Jazeera reported of a 5-meter wide crater however, if that is the diameter of the hole, it is not as significant as a Scud one would be. Even if I’m not an expert in missiles, I know Scuds have a very high terminal speed (1,4 km per second) and the typical damage on the ground is a crater 1.5 – 4 meters deep, 12 mt wide, according to “Scud Ballistic Missile and Launch Systems 1955-2005″ from Steven J. Zaloga (Osprey Publishing). Therefore, if the crater is 5 meter deep, then it was most probably a Scud, otherwise, the hole was caused by another piece of heavy artillery. For some more info about Scud hunt read the Day 24 debrief.

Source: Reuters

Other important news were the first Predator strikes in Libya. The very first one was conducted on Apr. 23, at approx. 11.00GMT, when a MQ-1 hit a Multiple Rocket Launcher (MRL) in the vicinity of Misratah. On the same day, at 20.40 GMT, another Predator UAS (Unmanned Aerial Surveillance) destroyed an SA-8 SAM. As the NATO press release underlined: “the operators of the Predator were able to detect a number of civilians playing football near the missile and firing was delayed until the people had dispersed”. Therefore:

“This Predator strike is a perfect example of the complex and fluid situation that NATO air forces are facing every day as part of Operation Unified Protector. NATO will continue to do everything in its power to prevent harm to the civilian population,” said Rear Admiral Russ Harding, Deputy Commander of Operation Unified Protector. “Predator drones enhance NATO’s ability to strike with care and precision.”

“These strikes will continue and we ask civilians in the affected regions to distance themselves from Qadhafi regime forces, installations and equipment whenever possible so we can strike with greater success and with the minimum risk to civilians,” said Rear Admiral Harding.

These Predator strikes teach us that UAV attacks count more than “conventional” ones, or at least seem to give the public opinion the idea that they are more “surgical”. For sure, although their involvement was much advertised, becoming a sort of marketing tool in the  Predators have some advantages: they fly at lower speed, (sometimes) they can descend to lower level than manned planes and, above all, they have such an endurance that they can wait the right moment to fire their AGM-114 missiles, because they can stay airborne for up to 20-24 hours. As I had the opportunity to explain to the Corriere della Sera’ special correspondent from Washington Guido Olimpio, they save some 4 – 5 conventional sorties and even after declaring “Winchester” (the typical codeword that is used to inform the control agency that the aircraft as no ordnance remaining) it can direct other air strikes or perform ISR duties.

Then, the news of the first strikes provide the confirmation that there are two CAPs: one near Misratah, the other one near Tripoli.

Another interesting news arrived in the evening of Apr. 25, when Italy’s PM Silvio Berlusconi announced that Italy would the bombing campaign in Libya in the following 72 hours. Italian planes, initially performing SEAD strikes (still unclear whether they had the clearance to fire if they detected a radar site or not), reconnaissance and Defensive Counter Air missions, will be involved in targeted actions against specific military objectives in Libya within the strict confines of NATO’s mandate and of UNSCR. The decision to change the role, initially limited for many reasons (Italian colonial history in Libya, internal political struggles, strong national interests in the region, etc.), came after growing pressures from NATO partners and US in particular. The aircraft involved in the new phase of the Italian mission, were not disclosed, despite many media reported Tornado IDS, AMX and AV-8B+ Harrier will perform strike sorties over Libya. The Minister of Defense Ignazio La Russa, in an interview given to La Repubblica referred only to the Tornado IDS. The attack aircraft belonging to the 6° Stormo based in Ghedi are already deployed to Trapani (as I personally witnessed on Apr. 12) and were involved in reconnaissance missions over possible targets from weeks. They will simply carry the CLDP targeting pod instead of the Reccelite, and some PGMs to strike targets “outside towns, in order to avoid collateral damages”. I don’t know if the Aeronautica Militare, as the RAF, will use the MBDA Storm Shadow stand-off missile, but I can’t rule this possibility out. The most recent weapons introduced on the Tornado fleet along with the Storm Shadow are the GBU-32 JDAMs and the EGBU-24 Paveway III even if the Italians will probably carry the GBU-12s or 16s (respectively 500 and 1.000 lbs).

Other interesting things, information and thoughts:

1) Latest NATO update:
Since the beginning of the NATO operation (31 March 2011, 08.00GMT) a total of 3.858 sorties and 1.606
strike sorties have been conducted.
Sorties breakdown in the last few days:

Apr. 23: 144 sorties – 56 strikes
Apr. 24: 143 sorties – 62 strikes
Apr. 25: 133 sorties – 56 strikes

The above figures show the optempo has not changed in the last few days. Let’s see what happens with another partner (Italy) joining the bombing campaign.

2) On Mar. 26, as reported in the Day 8 debrief, French aircraft carried out several strikes around Misratah and according to the French MoD, pending a more accurate battle damage result (BDA), I wrote that initial observations:

“would indicate the destruction on the ground at Misratah of at least five Soko G-2 Galeb combat planes and at least two combat helicopters MI-35 who were about to conduct operations in the region. Needless to say, in spite of the various news reports claiming “7 aircraft shot down” or “Gaddafi’s war planes downed”, these can’t be considered air-to-air victories; what is somehow surprising is that the aircraft were “about to conduct operations in the region” considering the number of coalition aircraft enforcing the No-Fly Zone and the immediate consequences of any attempt to use them to attack rebel forces or simply to disperse them to other bases. I’m curious to know where if they were parked, as usual, next one another in the large apron located next to the RWY15 threshold: in this case, an LGB could destroy or at least damage more than one aircraft at a time.

Anyway, recent disclosed satellite imagery shows not only FAF did not shot down any aircraft, but those destroyed on the ground were far from being prepared for a sortie in the region as the French MoD press update explained:

L’opération Harmattan a été marquée lors de ces dernières 24 heures par la poursuite des missions aériennes dans le cadre de la résolution 1973. Au cours de ces missions, les avions français ont réalisé plusieurs frappes dans les régions de Zintan et Misrata. Dans l’attente d’une évaluation plus précise des résultats, les premières observations permettent de constater la destruction au sol à Misrata d’au moins cinq avions de combat Galeb et d’au moins deux hélicoptères de combat MI-35 qui se préparaient à mener des opérations dans la région.

The images, rendered available by the AAAS website at the following link clearly show 5 Mig-23s (originally captured by the rebels on Feb. 24 and then sabotaged, with the removal of their nose before the regime counterattack, few days later according to Tom Cooper) and 2 Mi-35s before and after being struck by the French Air Force. So, they are neither Su-22 as the AAAS reports (they were probably deceived by the missing noses) nor aircraft about to take off……Better intelligence would prevent allies from wasting LGBs.

At this respect, Kurt Schneckenburger pointed me to an interesting Defense News article about the presumed NATO bomb shortages. In the article, some more information about French stocks are provided:

The French government last year ordered Paveway II and Enhanced Paveway II kits to adapt GBU 12 and 49 “dumb bombs” into guided weapons, an industry source said. Deliveries of the Raytheon-built kits were made before the Libya campaign started.

The Mirage 2000D, Super Etendard and Rafale are certified for the Paveway II, while the Rafale has not yet been certified for the improved version.

In February 2010, France ordered 680 armement air-sol modulaire (AASM) guided bombs from Sagem, following an initial order of 750. The AASM kit comes in three versions: GPS/INS, GPS/INS and infrared, and GPS/INS and laser.

In 2009, the government cut the total purchase of AASMs to 2,348 from a planned 3,000 units including 1,200 with laser guidance, according to a 2010 French parliamentary report cited by newsweekly Le Point. At a total budget of 846 million euros ($1.2 billion), that implied an average unit price of 350,000 euros for the AASM, the parliamentary report said.

French warplanes have fired about 10 MBDA Scalp EG air-launched cruise missiles against Libyan ground targets, Burkhard said.

3) Here’s a weekly update on the French contribution to Unified Protector. Since Apr. 14 the French military continues to provide an average of almost four sorties (only? most probably, these should be “missions”) per day (representing about 120 flight hours), half of which are strike missions. These figures still represent about 20% of all NATO sorties and 25% of ground attacks.

Between April 14, 2011 6:00 ET April 21, 2011 0600, France has made:

  • 135 air strike sorties ( Rafale Air, Mirage 2000-D, Mirage F1 CR / Rafale Marine and Super-Etendard Marine)
  • 52 reconnaissance sorties ( Rafale Air, Mirage F1 CR and Rafale Marine / Reco NG)
  • 26 DCA sorties (Mirage 2000-5 from Souda Bay in cooperation with Qatar
  • 18 airspace control and management sorties (E3F and E2C)
  • 44 AAR sorties (C135 and Rafale Marine / Super Etendard Marine)

Furthermore, since Apr. 14, the strike of the French aircraft have hit the following targets:

  • a dozen military vehicles and two armored vehicles carrying ammunition and shells in the areas of Misratah, and of Ajdabiya;
  • three missile sites in areas of Tripoli and Misrata;
  • a multiple rocket launcher near Ajdabiya;
  • ammunition depots and storage areas in the Sirte and Tripoli;
  • communication and command installations in theareas of Tripoli, Sirte and Ras Lanuf.

Source: French MoD

Guido Olimpio pointed me to the following interesting French Air Force footage. It shows what seems to be an SA-8 hit just after launching some SAMs against NATO aircraft. At the beginning of the video there’s also some footage of a Mirage F1 departing from Malta: interestingly, once again, on Apr. 23, two French Mirage F1s were compelled to perform an emergency landing in Malta before being refuelled and proceed to their destination (Solenzara, Corsica).

4) Loosely related to the Libyan war: on Apr. 24 a Kazakh named Valeriy Tolmashev tried to hijack Alitalia flight AZ329 from Paris to Rome and to divert it to Tripoli by threatening a female flight attendant. The episode occurred at around 19.30 GMT as Tolmashev approached the hostess with a small knife saying he wanted to hijack the Airbus A321 with 131 passengers on board to the Libyan capital. However he was quickly overpowered by four stewards and passengers who forced him back to his seat where a doctor was able to administer him a sedative.
The flight arrived in Rome Fiumicino at 20.05 GMT and the 48 years old Kazakh was handed over to police. Although such episodes urge a reaction by the Air Defense that usually scramble the QRA (Quick Reaction Alert) planes to intercept the plane, it seems that the Alitalia flight was not “shadowed” by Italian Air Force planes to landing.
Noteworthy, the cabin staff’s intervention was so quick at the front of the plane that those passengers travelling at the back did not notice anything until the pilot announced that everything was ok and the flight was going to land safely.

5) The 18° Gruppo, that took part to the first Italian Odyssey Dawn sorties has made a special patch to celebrate the participation in the air campaign in Libya (read the very first debrief for details about the Italian F-16s involvement). The Sqn’s F-16s belonging to the 37° Stormo were replaced by the 4° and 36° Stormo’s Typhoons in Unified Protector and are currently involved in ensuring the QRA service from Trapani airbase.

Operation Unified Protector (was Odyssey Dawn) explained (Day 35)

Previous debriefings: Archive

Notice for my readers: please don’t expect the usual daily updates for the next few days. For sure, I’ll provide new updates after Easter but I’m still deciding if the next will be daily, weekly or random updates every two or three days. Most probably there will be a mix since I think the best way to provide useful and interesting reads is to write a recap or to give an explaination or my point of view when/as soon as there’s something interesting to say or to analyse. Please keep sending me updates, links, pictures and everything you consider interesting and I will try to enrich my debriefs with them.

Day 35 recap

After all the rest of the world had noticed it from a few weeks, on Apr. 22 even the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Adm. Mike Mullen has officially acknowledged that the war is moving towards (I would rather say, “has reached”) a stalemate. Even if NATO has destroyed 30 – 40% of Libya’s ground forces nothing so far has proved effective to break the deadlock: neither the Milan ATGMs supplied by Qatar to the rebels (along with some body armour) nor the drones that the US has decided to actively use in theatre. Although important under a military point of view because they ensure that “persistence” on the target area that sometime NATO seemed to be unable to provide, the use of MQ-1 Predators within Unified Protector are even more important because they represent the first sign of a renew American involvement in a difficult war.

Sec. Def. Gates said the aircraft performed their first mission on Thursday but were compelled to return back (to Sigonella) because of bad weather conditions over the target area. Some media speculated that was the very first mission but, as already explained on this blog, it was from more than a week that US Predators had joined US Global Hawks in daily reconnaissance sorties over Libya.

The involvement of US armed Predators over Libya arrived few hours before the news hat two UAVs (most probably MQ-1 Predator, similar to those currently patrolling Misratah skies) had fired 4 missiles against a compound in Spinwam, North Waziristan, Pakistan, killing at least 25 people, including 5 women and 4 children in a nearby house. Although details of such attack were not disclosed (actually, there are no official confirmations of the strike) the unlucky episode, unfortunately not the first to occur along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border where CIA fights militants with drones, sounded as ominous as that “Odyssey” chosen for the Libyan operation name, which foreshadowed a long and difficult campaign. However, it’s worth reminding all those worrying about the accuracy of the “lethal drones” that reports coming from Pakistan’s tribal areas are somehow inaccurate because they are also influenced by the difficulties in distinguishing a civilian from a militant or an extremist, and the dead ones are all referred to as “civilians”. Therefore, not all the Predator attacks in Pakistan kill tens civilians even if, for sure, they can harm civilians in the vicinity of the target, as conventional planes do.

Photo: USAF

That’s what Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. James Cartwright said during the Press Briefing with Sec. Def. Robert Gates:

They’re uniquely suited for areas — urban areas where you can get low collateral damage.  And so we’re trying to manage that collateral damage obviously, but that’s the best platform to do that with; their extended persistence on the target — they’re out there for a full day working the targets.

And so you have those capabilities, in addition to being able to get in targets where — out in the open where collateral damage is a worry, for instance, around ammo depots and things like that, that you want to hit — particularly a vehicle but you don’t want to hit the depot and have the secondaries.

By analysing the transcript of the Press Briefing, I’ve noticed that:

We have two CAPs, so two birds would be in the country at any given time, a max of two. They have the capability of being there 24 hours a day. So we can maintain two birds for 24 hours a day, is the capability that’s there.

If 2 Predators will be constantly orbiting over Libya more than 2 birds are actually deployed to Sigonella as reported by some media. To have 2 Predators CAPping for 24 hours, at least 5 Predators are required at Sigonella airbase.

By the way, Guido Olimpio, the Corriere della Sera’ ( most important Italian newspaper) special correspondent from Washington, expert in international terrorism and Middle East crises, and author of many publications, mentioned me in his article “Usa: useremo i droni armati in Libia”.

The uprising has reached some of the most western villages of Libya. Rebels took over the Wazin crossing near the Tunisian border forcing Gaddafi’s brigades to flee into Tunisian territory. Minor gains have been reported also in the disputed Misratah. Are loyalists suffering supply shortages? Are they preparing some surprise action or is this the effect of the stalemate?

Some tweets on Twitter speculated Gaddafi’s forces were preparing an attack by sea at Misratah, using small boats capable of carrying 15 people. Noteworthy, a new PSYOPS message was recorded on Apr. 22 across Europe, with the usual message inviting, in both American and Arabic languages, sailors and naval officers of a Libyan ship to leave the vessel and return to their families. As explained in Day 11 Debrief that message was heard also before a P-3 attacked and destroyed a Libyan ship (along with A-10s) the were threatening some merchant ships in the vicinity of Misratah port. In this respect, Libyan jamming of the NATO message was recorded by many radio hams: this proves Gaddafi’s forces retains some EW capabilities that, for some reason, NATO has not rendered harmless yet.

Dealing with the air strikes since the beginning of the NATO operation (31 March 2011, 08.00GMT) a total of 3.300 sorties and 1.373 strike sorties have been conducted. On Apr. 21, 152 sorties comprising 62 air strikes. Among targets hit on Apr. 21: 8 ammunition storage bunkers near Tripoli; 1 tank, 1 anti-aircraft gun, in the vicinity of Misratah; 1 military vehicle, near Zintan; 4 tanks, 5 military vehicles near Ajdabiya; 2 tanks, 1 multiple rocket launcher, near Brega; 5 ammunition storage bunkers, near Mizdah; 4 military trucks, around Sirte.

Furthermore, in the last couple of days, France, UK and Italy have decided to despatch small teams of military advisers that don’t constitute “boots on the ground” as their intention is not to be involved in a ground campaign with combat troops but to turn the rebels, that have shown so far limited military capabilities, into a more effective combatant force. Libyan Government has reacted to the decision of Paris, London and Rome’s governments with threatening statements.

 

Source: Reuters

Other interesting things, information and thoughts:

1) Guido Olimpio, as already explained above, one of the most authoritative Italian journalists, sent me the links to a series of interesting videos, some of which raise questions about the way NATO has conducted the air campaign so far.
The following video, dated Apr. 17, Al Zintan, shows Gaddafi’s forces shelling rebels almost undisturbed. They are neither hidden nor camouflaged nor operating under the covered provided by bad weather. I checked NATO press releases archive, because I could not remember how many vehicles or rocket launchers were hit by allied planes on Apr. 17: unfortunately, no data was released by NATO for that date….

The following video shows the column moving towards Benghazi on Mar. 18, 2011. This could be the one that was attacked by the French Air Force on Mar. 19 in the beginning stages of Odyssey Dawn. A nice parade of Libyan military equipment.

2) In the last 24 hours, the Italian contingent has launched 7 missions (14 sorties): 3x AV-8B Harriers, 2x Tornados and 2x Typhoons. Most probably Italy has no one available since they are heavily involved in Afghanistan, but what about using one or two of its Predators (based in Amendola) or Predator B (Reaper) to perform some ISR sorties over Libya (saving fuel and flying hours of its tacair fleet that is simply flying orbits to enforce the NFZ)?

3) A RAF Tornado GR4 returning from a Unified Protector mission over Libya was compelled to jettison its fuel tanks before landing in emergency at Gioia del Colle airbase on Apr. 21. The drop were dropped in a field located 500 meters from the runway threshold. Even if the type of failure experienced by the British “Tonka” was not disclosed, many emergency procedures require the pilot to drop the external stores to reduce the aircraft gross weight so it can be landed safely. Tanks are usually dropped also when cockpit instruments indicate an engine fire.

4) Mike, a reader of this blog, sent me the following interesting comment to provide more details about the famous Falcon 900 registered “5A-DCN” used by the Libyan Government (for some background information, read here: “Libyan airspace most interesting movements of last week”).

Hi,
I thought I would give a little background as I formerly worked as a pilot for United Aviation, Libya, the operator of 5A-DCN and others.

United Aviation is a Libyan VIP air charter company based in Tripoli. The aircraft are all based at Mitiga, HLLM. Crews are a combination of Libyan and expats, with most of the Captains being expats from the US. When I was last there almost a year ago, they operated 2 BD-700 Global Express, 1 CL-850 (CRJ200), 1 CL-300,the DA-900 referenced above, and a leased Boeing 707. They may also operate at Lear 60XR and Challenger 605 at this time.

The company is operated as a subsidiary of Afriquiya Airways, the Libyan state-owned airline. They have an operating certificate allowing for worldwide operations under ICAO regulations.

We flew a combination of Libyan cabinet members and African dignitaries to a variety of worldwide destinations. The only thing interesting about the above flight is that 5A-DCN was reserved for the exclusive use of military leaders when I was there. It was crewed exclusively by former Libyan Air Force pilots, and to my knowledge did not participate in the charter operations that the rest of the aircraft were used for.

Operation Unified Protector (was Odyssey Dawn) explained (Day 34)

Previous debriefings: Archive

One of the most frequent questions I have received in the last days is: “how many aircraft are needed to provide a 24-hour cover of Libya?”. Obviously, who has asked the question was not interested in fighters needed to enforce the NFZ but in bombers for interdiction and CAS.
It’s not easy to answer this question, since there are many factors to be considered. Indeed, it is not only important to determine how many assets, but where the CAP/loitering areas must be established, how long the aircraft have to maintain the AOR (Area Of Responsibility), etc.
Basing on the information issued in one of the first press briefings by Pentagon, we know that 4 loitering areas for interdiction planes have been established in norther Libya (actually, over the sea in front of it). Most probably, they haven’t changed since NATO took over the command of the operations.

If we consider an “on station” time of  3 – 4 hours, on a daily basis, between 48 and 64 sorties are required to provide a continuos cover of the assigned areas. Let’s consider an average 56 sorties. Obviously, if a flight of 2 bombers is called to perform an air strike their area remains vacant and another flight must be moved to replace it (if not already flying, some assets could be kept in stand by and scrambled if needed) even if achieving a constant presence is almost impossible.

Since the sound of aircraft orbiting above the enemy troops or performing “show of force” flybys is an important deterrent (as shown in Afghanistan), first of all I’d move the loitering areas and repositiong them over the disputed cities (provided that they are still positioned above the sea). This would also reduce the transit time from the orbits to the target area.

That said, to strengthen NATO presence, just to make an example, NATO could add 2 more orbits to the 4 already used, placing them near Misratah (bringing the total in the area to 3) and in the Gulf of Sirte, off Brega, Ras Lanuf and Ajdabiya (bringing the total in the area to 2). On a tactical basis, aircraft patrolling on a certain area could be quickly moved to reinforce presence elsewhere.  If we “translate” the new set up in number of sorties, to keep 6 orbits for 24 hours, NATO would need from 72 to 96 daily sorties. As said, this would not ensure a constant presence on the target area but at least it would improve the possibility to have the asset where and when needed.  Obviously, all what I’ve written so far, makes sense if NATO is willing to use those additional planes to hit the Libyan troops hard, before it is too late. Otherwise it is not worth the effort: to set up 2 more H24 orbits more aircraft, more tankers and more support personnel are required.

On Apr. 21, President Barak Obama authorized the DoD to use armed MQ-1 Predators in Libya. This marks the end of the support role played since Apr. 4 by the US. The Predators were already operating over Libya but they flew reconnaissance flights without carrying any armament. The news is that, since Day 34, they are cleared to engage ground targets. Even if only 2 Predators will be used by the US military in Unified Protector (under NATO command) their impact could be relevant. For sure, they can loiter over a target area for some 15 – 16 hours (thus saving 4 conventional sorties) and, apart from attacking ground targets directly with AGM-114 Hellfire missiles, they can provide target description, buddy lasing and reconnaissance in favour of other allied planes.

Image credit: USAF

Still, as already explained many times in my daily debriefs, it is not only important how many assets are used in Unified Protector but how they are used: even if 2 more orbits could provide a better coverage of the norther part of Libya, the current 4, as explained by Paul Smyth in his “Libya: is NATO doing enough”

However, this does not explain the seeming periodic absence of NATO aircraft over the eastern battlefront, the apparent shifting of NATO emphasis between Misratah and other locations, or the UK decisions to reinforce the Tornado GR4 deployment and re-role some Typhoon air defence fighters to strike assets. Furthermore, on four days NATO figures indicate flying less than sixty strike sorties (fifty-eight on 3 and 4,fifty-six on 9 and fifty-four on 7 April); it is therefore highly unlikely that it provided a constant presence over key resistance areas whilst conducting interdiction duties elsewhere.

Other interesting things, information and thoughts:

1) In one of the past Debrief I’ve explained what I thought about the presumed missiles shortage reported by some media. According to the Daily Telegraph, the RAF was recently compelled to order more Brimstone bombs (read Day 7 Debrief for some details on this weapon) as a consequence of their intense and effective usage in both Libya and Afghanistan. The newspaper disclosed that more than 110 Brimstones have been fired since they were first used against Taliban in 2009 and an estimate of 60 were fired at armoured vehicles in Libya. Tornado GR4s flying Unified Protector missions within British Operation Ellamy, usually carry a single three-missile launcher for the Brimstone within a mixed configuration which includes also 500 lbs Paveway IV LGB and pod-housed targeting/reconnaissance sensors. If a large amount of them are used also in the coming weeks, the RAF risks having low stocks: without Brimstone, the Tornado GR4s would have to use the 500lbs Paveway II or the 1000 lbs Paveway IV used by the Typhoons.

More than 2,000 Brimstones were originally built to take on massed Soviet armoured divisions and were unable to discriminate between friend or foe vehicles. The MoD decided to convert more than 300 Brimstones into the “dual mode” under an urgent operational requirement and proved a huge success in Afghanistan where it can target individuals, buildings and fast-moving vehicles.
However, converting more bombs is a complex process taking a number of weeks. It is understood that the British manufacturers MBDA have been quietly asked to begin making more.

Following the success in Libya, other foreign countries, like US and France seems to be interested in the dual mode Brimstone, a 50kg (110lb) missile that is an extensive redevelopment of the Lockheed Martin AGM-114 Hellfire, optimised for release from fast moving platforms, that is considered “a unique munition capable of destroying manoeuvering targets”.

In the meanwhile, NATO has realeased an interesting video showing footage recorded by RAF Tornado and Typhoon targeting pods as the British plane struck Libyan communication installations of Gaddafi’s command and control network.

A RAF pilot recalled the first bombing mission with the Typhoon here.

2) Newspaper Aftenposten reported on Apr. 20 that RNoAF fired at least 12 % of NATO’s bombs against Gaddafi’s forces. Around 140 PGMs have been dropped against military targets since the beginning of Odyssey Dawn. Article also says the total number of missions passed 90 (even if, as suggest by Aksel Magdahl, that could be the actual number of sorties). Just a few days ago the RNoAF F-16 had dropped 100 PGMs, so an increase of 40 bombs since then would indicate an increase in tempo for the Norwegian F16s. A short video released by the RNoAF (as pictures below) taken from the F-16 Sniper pod is available here.

3) The brief Italian MoD press release on Apr. 22 informs that in the last 24 hrs the Italian contingent flew 6 missions (12 sorties): 3x Typhoons, 2x Tornados, 1x AV-8B+ Harrier. NATO flew on Apr. 20, 132 sorties (50 air strikes) bringing the total to 3.148 sorties and 1.311 strike sorties. Key engagements for Apr. 20 were: 2 heavy equipment transporters, 3 armored vehicles, 1 ammunition storage site near Tripoli, 2 tanks, 1 communication tower, 1 radar near Misratah, and 1 tank and 2 rocket launchers in the vicinity of Zintan.

4) The Swedish Air Force released an image of a Libyan airfield taken by a JAS-39 Gripen assigned to Unified Protector with the recce pod. Even if the location was not released I’m almost 100% the photo was taken at Misratah airport. You can compare the SweAF picture with the screenshot I took with Google Earth (obviously they were not taken on the same date….).

Operation Unified Protector (was Odyssey Dawn) explained (Day 33)

Previous debriefings: Archive

Since there’s no significant change in the battlefield nor any evident sign of an attempt to get out of the stalemate, the news of the day is that two photojournalists, Oscar-nominated filmmaker Tim Hetherington and Getty photographer Chris Hondros, were killed on Apr. 20, Day 33 of the war, after coming under mortar fire in Misratah. Hetherington, co-director of the Academy Awards-candidate documentary “Restrepo” on the Afghan War and Hondros were working together with other media representatives on Tripoli Street, one of the most important location in the third-largest Libyan city where fighting between rebels and Gaddafi’s forces is more fierce. The last Tweet from Hetherington, is dated Apr. 19, 12:46, and came from is Twitter for iPhone application: “@TimHetherington: In besieged Libyan city of Misrata. Indiscriminate shelling by Qaddafi forces. No sign of NATO”.

The Restrepo trailer:

Hence, although NATO said that allies planes have conducted numerous strikes against Gaddafi’s forces in and around Misratah, destroying over 40 tanks and several armoured vehicles, and many anti-aircraft systems “enabling our planes to operate more effectively in the area” Hetherington had seen no sign of NATO planes. On the contrary, he was a victim of that fire that, according to Gen. van Hum, was watched threatening civilians by allied pilots and consequently destroyed.

Is NATO doing enough? No, it isn’t. It’s not a personal opinion, it is what the situation in Libya shows.

That said, I would like to share with my readers also another thought. I acknowledge that, doing media relations at NATO these days must not be simple. However, I find irritating as well as useless a press release from NATO issued on Apr. 20 to advice Libyans to avoid Gaddafi’s forces.

Maybe NATO should explain something different. For instance, why after 32 days there are still fixed targets like ammunition depots to be hit, when these should be destroyed in the very first stages of an air campaign (just after making the enemy’s air defenses unserviceable). Anyway, below is the usual count of sorties flown in the previous 24 hrs:

Since the beginning of the NATO operation (31 March 2011, 08.00GMT) a total of 3.016 sorties and 1.261 strike sorties have been conducted. On Apr. 19, 139 sorties (62 air strikes). Key targets were: 2 Ammunition depots near Tripoli, 2 T-62 Tanks, 1 T-55 Tank, 3 Rocket launcher vehicles near Misratah, and 1 Surface-To-Surface (SSM) Missile Site near Sirte.

Other interesting things, information and thoughts:

1) An interesting update comes today from the French MoD. As you know, since Mar. 25, 2011, 4 French Mirage 2000-5s are operating from Souda Bay airbase in Crete, from where they conduct joint air interdiction missions with Qatari Mirage 2000-5s. Beginning on Apr. 18, 4 Mirage 2000Ds (like those in the French MoD released pictures below), which previously operated from Solenzara, in Corsica, were redeployed to Souda to conduct air interdiction missions and ground strikes from the Greek airbase. On Apr. 19, they were joined by two more Mirage 2000Ds. This redeployment in Crete can enhance the effectiveness of French combat aircraft by reducing the transit time to the area of operations, thereby reducing reaction times and increasing the amount of time spent on patrol. In total, from Apr. 19, 10 FAF planes are deployed to Souda: 4 Mirage 2000-5s and 6 Mirage 2000Ds.

On Apr. 20, 2 Mirage F1CR performed an emergency landing for fuel problems in Malta Luqa airport. The aircraft were refuelled and departed again to Solenzara later the same day. After the two defecting Libyan Mirage F1s, this is the second time Malta International Airport receives the unexpected visit by two Mirage F1s….

Source: Reuters

2) The Italian contingent in the last 24 hours flew 8 missions: 2x Tornados, 5x Typhoons, 1x AV-8B+s. Since the Italian Navy Harriers are involved in reconnaissance and air defense missions, many have asked in which configuration the AV-8Bs are flying over Libya. Even if I haven’t seen any picture depicting an Italian Navy jump jet so far, I think that, as many other assets involved in the enforcement of the No Fly Zone, they are flying with air-to-air missiles (AIM-120s/AIM-9s) but, since they are multi-role aircraft perfectly suitable for the air-to-ground role and for the CAS in particular, they are bringing also Litening pods on one of the underwing pylons to have a closer look at the overflown areas. The Litening has the possibility to transmit TV images in real time to a ground receiving station.

The picture below shows an AV-8B of the Marina Militare with a Litening pod under the right wing.

3) As said, the US are contributing to Unified Protector with support assets. Among them, some of the most important are the KC-135s and KC-10s deployed to Moron, Spain, providing air-to-air refueling to both American and allied planes. The aircraft belongs to the 313th Air Expeditionary Wing, which was given a nickname “Calico Wing” by the wing’s commander because, the multitude of colors of tail flashes on the 313th AEW ramp, looked like a Calico Cat (a domestic cat with a spotted or parti-colored coat).

As an example, a recently published photo from 313th AEW Public Affairs shows the various tail flash colors of the aircraft that might resemble the “spotted” coat of a calico cat. The illustration features aircraft tails from Air National Guard units in Nebraska, Utah, Ohio, Arizona, Tennessee, Illinois, Iowa and Pennsylvania. It also shows Air Force Reserve aircraft from Indiana and North Carolina, and active-duty aircraft from California, Kansas, North Dakota, Washington, Florida and New Jersey.

Operation Unified Protector (was Odyssey Dawn) explained (Day 32)

Previous debriefings: Archive

Although the battlefield is deadlocked, with fightings taking place more or less in the same manner at Misratah and other disputed cities along the northern Libyan coastline, with NATO being unable to prevent, for various reasons, Gaddafi’s forces to bomb civilians with rockets, heavy artillery and also cluster bombs.

From its point of view, NATO has kept up a high operational tempo. NATO Spokesperson, Oana Lungescu said:

Allied aircraft have flown well over 2.800 missions — an average of just over 1.000 a week. Almost half of them strikes. We have struck a broad range of targets — tanks and rocket launchers, armoured vehicles and ammunition sites. We are keeping up the pressure on the Gaddafi regime forces to stop their brutal onslaught against civilians. It’s a challenging task — but we are making significant progress in weakening Gaddafi’s ability to use his military machine against his own people.

That operational tempo has been matched by a high political tempo. Last week, as you know, NATO foreign ministers met in Berlin with our operational partners and reinforced the political impetus behind Operation Unified Protector. They re-stated full support for the mission. They committed to providing all the resources needed to do the job. And they agreed that they will do so until all attacks on civilians have stopped; until all of Gaddafi’s forces, including his snipers, mercenaries and paramilitary forces have returned to bases; and until there is full, safe and unhindered humanitarian access to all people in need of assistance.

[...]

So NATO and its partners are united, we are determined, and we are focused. We are doing what the UN has mandated — and we will continue to do so, for as long as it takes.

Gen. van Hum, chief of Allied Operations at SHAPE, explained that the arms embargo is comprehensive and effective. Since operation started NATO has checked 432 vessels and boarded 10 for further inspection and found no violations. Dealing with the NFZ, there were no violations from fixed wing aircraft since last week (does this mean that some violations from rotary wing assets occurred?). For what concerns the activities aimed at protecting civilians on the ground, the battlefield is “fluid, dynamic and always changing”. NATO is not only operating in Misratah, Zintan and Ajdabiya but across all Libya. It is currently hitting Command and Control facilities of the regime including communication infrastructures. Over the last 36 hours beginning on Sunday evening these communication nodes were the focus of a coordinated series of strikes aimed at degrading Gaddafi’s ability to command and direct with his forces. Still, nothing indicates that Gaddafi has any intention of disengaging from operations as his forces continue to use heavy weapons against civilians. Therefore NATO will continue with the air strikes.

In Misratah, NATO has been watching the situation over the past 10 days: “On the ground the situation fluid. The regime force have been indiscriminately rocketing and shelling the city causing widespread damages. The sea port was closed a few times due to repeated shelling and fighting in the area. Our forces have conducted numerous strikes against Gaddafi’s forces in and around Misratah. We have destroyed over 40 tanks and several armoured vehicles. In addition several anti-aircraft system were destroyed enabling our planes to operate more effectively in the area” he said. Allied pilots watched rocket launchers being used in the area to hit civilians and they destroyed them.

But there’s a limit to what can be achieved by air power to stop fighting in a city. We are taking every precaution to avoid causing civilian casualties by our own air ops. What we are doing is attacking regime’s ability to supply and sustain these attacks not just in the area of Misratah but across the country.

According to van Hum, there’s a good balance between enforcing the NFZ and interdicting the forces threatening civilians as the 1.200 air strike sorties represent over 40% of the total sorties flown.

Van Uhm said that the alliance has the necessary planes for the missions. He explained that there are planes constantly flying over Libya, day and night, gathering information about the forces on the ground and capable of directing other assets to strike them, when need. Furthermore, without going into specific details, he said that NATO already has “more assets” than last Friday when NATO officials said the NATO mission is short of about 10 aircraft and at a meeting of alliance foreign ministers. He refused to comment why NATO is not currently using helicopters and naval firepower for Unified Protector, answering once again that NATO has the required assets to fulfil the mission.

So, NATO rejects critics by saying that it is maintaining a high operational tempo and affirming it has everything it needs to execute the air campaign, to target the Gaddafi’s forces and to attack loyalist second echelon forces. Sorties conducted on Apr. 18 were 143, comprising 53 air strikes which hit, among other targets, 9 ammunitions bunkers and the HQ of 32nd Brigade in the vicinity of Tripoli, 6 surface to air missiles, 4 tanks, 3 air defence missile sites and 1 mobile rocket launcher in the vicinity of Misratah, 3 ammunition storage bunkers in the vicinity of Sirte, 3 tanks, 1 anti-aircraft weapon system and 1 armoured vehicles, in the vicinity of Zitan, and 1 building near Brega.

Ok, nice. However, as an analyst I can’t but notice that the impact of such strikes hasn’t had the expected result so, maybe it’s time to change something.

Other interesting things, information and thoughts:

1) Alvaro Muñoz-Aycuens (@Alvarito) sent me the following interesting update about the Spanish Air Force contribution to Unified Protector, with information released by the Ministry of Defense to get approval by congress to expand the mission for two more months.

Since the 19th of March to the 17th of April, the missions numbers are as follow:

The E/F-18M has made 45 CAP missions in which they have flown a total of 328 hours without the need to intercept any aircraft. The B707 tanker has done 22 missions and 134 hours, in all the AAR they have transferred a total of 453.000 liters of fuel to the F18 plus other alliance members.

The CAP mission lasst 4 hours, in which they operate in pairs on one of the 3 assigned CAP areas which according to the info involves 1 or 2 AAR. Meanwhile the B707 operations are almost daily on one single AAR area in which the missions last at least 6 hours. By a request of the NATO, because of the lack of tanker assets, they are going to add to the mission a C130 tanker. They say this doesn’t increase the spending assigned to the mission because of the reduction in CAP missions and will neither surpass the limits of assigned personnel which currently sits at 500 men.

Regarding the naval blockade and the support of the CN.235 SAR plane, since its mission start on March 23 has flown 12 missions clocking a total of 66 hours identifying 14 ships. These operations account for 25% of all the maritime patrol operations of Unified Protector.

Officially the name of the operation/detachment is “Argos”. Also they have authorize the mission to support the future humanitarian missions requested by the UN.

2) Italian contingent flew 6 missions (2 acft each) in the last 24 hours: 2x Tornados, 2x AV-8Bs, 2x Typhoons. Eurofighter released on the company’s official website some interesting pictures about Italian and British Typhoons involved in Unified Protector (the one above, showing a RAF Typhoon taking off from Gioia del Colle comes from Eurofighter webpage too).

The one below was taken, in my opinion, at the beginning of Odyssey Dawn and not recently as it shows an ItAF Typhoon landing in Trapani with 4 IRIS-T and 4 AIM-120 and “only” 2 (not 3 as seen in the last weeks) drop tanks.

3) The following Reuter picture, depicting Libyan horsemen shouting pro-Gaddafi slogans as they parade during a welcome ceremony for the African Union delegation at Tripoli’s airport on Apr. 10, 2011, is particularly interesting because it shows the Bombardier BD-700-1A11 “5A-UAB” sitting on the apron at Tripoli International Airport. The fate and current location of this bizjet, presumed to be used by the Libyan Government and possibly by Gaddafi and his close aides for both “domestic” and international flight, was unknown.

Source: Reuters