A new white paper, commissioned by the European Union, identifies capability gaps and limitations across its member states and offers ways forward for European and global security.
“Europe faces an acute and growing threat” is how the white paper, titled Joint White Paper for European Defence Readiness 2030, begins. At the forefront of concerns by EU member states are the actions by Russia in its invasion of Ukraine and hostile confrontations in the wider European theatre.
Coupled with these concerns is the perceived threat to the international order that has largely remained constant since 1945. The new Trump administration has made statements that have led to many European leaders calling into question the reliability of the United States as a partner in defense and security. As acknowledged in the paper, the NATO alliance has strongly benefitted European defense for decades, but the strength of NATO leans heavily, though not fully, on the military might of the United States.
“The future of Europe cannot be decided in Moscow or Washington”
French President Emmanuel Macron speaks to his nation in a televised address adding: “I want to believe the US will stand by our side, but we have to be ready for that not to be the case”
pic.twitter.com/Ooefvx8hFj
— Peter Stefanovic (@PeterStefanovi2) March 5, 2025
In order to build up military capabilities among its member states, with an aim to reduce reliance on the United States, the European Commission proposes a loan to the value of €150 billion that would be distributed across member states to fund increased defense spending. Named the Security and Action for Europe, or SAFE, this will fund joint procurements of defense equipment with approval conditions adjusted to suit the scale of the procurement.
SAFE procurements will involve at least two states, with one being a full EU member, while the other can be a member of the European Economic Area or the European Free Trade Association. Ukraine is uniquely named as an individual nation outside of these organizations that may be part of a SAFE procurement.
Critical Capability Gaps
Seven areas are highlighted as of particular focus for defense re-investment, for which SAFE funding will be prioritized.
Firstly is air and missile defense. The need for missile defense capabilities has been highlighted by the ongoing war in Ukraine, as well as by conflicts in the Middle East that have seen extraordinarily large attacks using drones and missiles side by side. Europe does produce its own air defense systems, but the scale of manufacturing likely needs to be increased to fit new demands. Only small numbers of the premier European air defense system, SAMP/T, have been produced, although missile commonality with shipborne air defense is a huge benefit for building up a sustainable ammunition supply.
🇫🇷 Macron: “Those who buy Patriot systems should be offered the new generation Franco-Italian SAMP/T. Those who buy F-35s should be offered Rafale.” pic.twitter.com/D5WovATGUo
— MAKS 24 🇺🇦👀 (@Maks_NAFO_FELLA) March 15, 2025
Europe currently has two ‘sixth generation’ fighter aircraft programs, although the more mature of these, GCAP, can only count on one of three main partners (Italy, UK, Japan) as an EU member. Air-to-air missiles are well represented in Europe with France producing the MICA missile family and IRIS-T fielded as an AIM-9 Sidewinder analogue by many other European nations. Multinational manufacturer MBDA has the ASRAAM and Meteor among its products, although both of these rely heavily on the United Kingdom for manufacture.
Artillery, including long range missile artillery, is another area that has seen a renewed focus due to the Ukraine war. The vaunted HIMARS as well as the larger M270 MLRS are American products, currently in use or under consideration by a sizable number of European nations. No equivalent to these is in production inside the European Union, but there is the potential for future missiles to be made compatible with the launchers. Gun artillery is widely produced within the EU, with Germany producing the RCH 155, France offering the CAESAR, and Sweden the Archer.
A strategic supply of ammunition, an area where European nations have before been caught out, is proposed, alongside the industrial capacity to replenish stocks as necessary. This includes everything from small arms ammunition through to complex missile systems. Millions of rounds of ammunition, of varying types, have been supplied to Ukraine since the 2022 invasion, but this in itself has at some points highlighted the shallow stockpiles and insufficient production capacities.
Drones and counter-drone systems will be further developed, again an area brought into focus by Ukraine and the Middle East. Counter drone technology would range from soft-kill electronic warfare type technology to kinetic missiles, radar-controlled guns, and even laser technology. A number of nations are now testing and in some cases fielding laser-based weaponry. Laser weapons are well suited to countering drone attacks as it removes the need to use up expensive ammunition on comparatively inexpensive threats.
More secretive and harder to quantify than the others listed, AI, quantum, cyber, and electronic warfare capabilities are an increasingly important aspect of modern warfare. It is widely believed that Russian cyber warfare efforts have been responsible for a number of attacks on critical government, transportation, energy, and communications infrastructure across Europe. Many activities, and even capabilities, in these areas are treated with the highest degrees of secrecy.
The most visible part is arguably electronic warfare, for which there are dedicated aircraft, pods, and shipborne systems. The only dedicated electronic warfare aircraft currently in European service is the Tornado ECR, which focuses on the suppression and destruction of enemy air defenses missions (SEAD/DEAD). With the impending retirement of the aging Tornado, an equivalent version of the Eurofighter Typhoon, named Typhoon EK, is in development. Italy is slated to receive the EA-37B Compass Call, which will be the U.S. Air Force’s new electronic warfare platform, but in the long term this will rely on American technical and tactical support.
Strategic enablers and critical infrastructure protection rounds out the seven categories. This is a wide-ranging segment that covers strategic airlift, air-to-air refueling, reconnaissance, secure communications, space, and logistics. In many of these areas there are European products available, active, and in production, but it is again the scale that causes concern. For aerial refueling, for example, the A330 MRTT is a capable and mature platform, but with only 20-30 aircraft across all EU nations it cannot match the enabling capability of the U.S. Air Force’s several hundred strong tanker fleet.
While not able to completely match the Boeing C-17A Globemaster III for outright performance, the Airbus A400M provides a comfortable bridge between strategic and tactical airlift with an additional role as an air to air refueling platform. Several EU nations are partners in the Heavy Airlift Wing, which uses three C-17s based in Hungary shared between those states that have signed up to the program. This allows smaller nations, such as Lithuania and Estonia, to access a strategic airlift capability that would otherwise not be feasible, but the Heavy Airlift Wing is heavily reliant on technical and operational support from the U.S. Air Force and it’s not clear how independently it would be able to operate.
Thanks to the success of Airbus, the EU produces several well supported base aircraft, like the Airbus A330, which can be converted for special mission purposes. France has recently moved forward with its desire to procure a maritime patrol aircraft based on the Airbus A321. Maritime patrol aircraft have also been created using the Italian made ATR 72 and the Airbus C295 tactical transport.
Saab’s AEW&C products, previously implemented on their own Saab 340 turboprop airliner, have now been transplanted onto a Bombardier Global Express platform. While not built in the EU, Bombardier’s is a Canadian company, and Canada is specifically mentioned in the white paper as a potential external collaborator for EU defense projects.
A true success for Europe as #Ariane6 🚀launches third major military observation satellite for France, #CSO3.
As sentinels in Space, reconnaissance satellites are an essential component of French defence capability.
The Airbus-built CSO-3 🛰️will deliver very high resolution… pic.twitter.com/ZCFsFrPUV7
— Airbus Space (@AirbusSpace) March 6, 2025
Airbus also has a strong showing in terms of space technology, and thanks to the European Space Agency (ESA), the Ariane 6 and Vega, the union essentially has a sovereign launch capability. The shortfalls here are in launch cadence. Between 1996 and 2023, Ariane 5, the predecessor to Ariane 6, completed 112 successful launches. This is by no means a small figure, and represents an example of a very reliable launch vehicle, but it shows a far more relaxed pace than the current American workhorse vehicle, the Falcon 9. Since the first launch in 2010, Falcon 9 has completed 450 successful launches, and its reusability brings down the cost of launch considerably. Europe might be able to build its satellites, but it is yet to secure an ability to launch them into orbit at pace.
#ESAHighlights2024: Our Vega-C returned to flight in a spectacular manner.
This event marked a key step in restoring Europe’s independent access to space.
🔗 https://t.co/U7J2Iph6Ok pic.twitter.com/LmyRzv16c0
— European Space Agency (@esa) December 28, 2024
Collaboration
The EU recognizes that it cannot secure its goals in defense and security alone. After shortly addressing bilateral security arrangements with the United States, and referring to the current administration’s expressed desire to withdraw certain amounts of support for the European theatre, the paper moves onto other allies.
Though relations were soured by the country’s exit from the alliance, the United Kingdom will undoubtedly play a major role in the future defense and security needs of the European Union. The UK operates extremely closely with many EU member states, and is also inextricably involved with consortiums like Airbus, Eurofighter, and Leonardo. The paper recommends the development of a security and defense partnership with the UK that builds on existing agreements. The UK has been blocked from accessing the SAFE program, though this is not unexpected as it no longer meets the criteria, but a lifeline has been extended should the UK choose to contribute to it.
Britain must pay its “fair share” into an EU defence fund worth €150 billion if UK arms companies are to benefit from European rearmament, Sir Keir Starmer has been warned ⬇️ https://t.co/uqnIJ15Rlu
— Times Politics (@timespolitics) March 21, 2025
As mentioned previously, Canada is also specified as an avenue for collaboration. This is particularly notable given current troubles in the relationship between the United States and Canada.
Türkiye, as a candidate for EU membership, is also mentioned. The nation’s growing and maturing defense industry has turned many heads, and this is sure to have had an influence. Baykar, the famed producer of unmanned aerial vehicles, recently acquired Italian manufacturer Piaggio, and also signed a collaboration agreement with Leonardo. Turkish Aerospace Industries’ trainer and light fighter, the Hurjet, looks to be on the cards as Spain’s future jet trainer.
Turkey’s drone producer Baykar has sold $1.8bn worth of equipment to world markets in 2024, becoming the top defense exporter in the country pic.twitter.com/4bwq9Hw1Eb
— Ragıp Soylu (@ragipsoylu) February 1, 2025
A partnership with India will be explored, tying in with European operations in the Indian ocean to counter maritime piracy. India’s military is an interesting combination of purchases from an array of nations, including both the United States and Russia, along with Israel, the UK, and many others. This could be a market that Europe could tap into, surely with the desire to bring India away from Russian influence and reinforce efforts to counter Chinese expansionism.
Lastly, current relationships with Australia, New Zealand, Japan and South Korea will be take into account for industrial collaboration. South Korea is rapidly becoming a new powerhouse in military technology, for land vehicles, ships, and aircraft, while Japan has long been a capable producer of home-built military technology.
