By 2027, in areas west of the international dateline where U.S. assets are deployed, China will outnumber U.S. forces about 12 to 1 in modern fighter jets (including 5 to 3 in fifth-generation aircraft) and 3 to 1 in maritime patrol planes.
Speaking from the base theater to both an in-person and virtual audience, Brig. Gen. Doug Wickert, commander of the 412th Test Wing, at Edwards AFB, during the Monday’s Back-in-the-Saddle Day, held on Jan. 6, 2025.
What he said is particularly interesting, because it addresses questions and concerns regarding the capabilities of the Chinese military, especially considering the recent unveiling of several next generation aircraft. Moreover, Wickert is the boss of one of the most important U.S. Air Force units, the 412th TW, which conducts testing and evaluation efforts, managing everything from aircraft and weapon systems to cutting-edge software and simulations. With a team of over 5,000 professionals, the unit keeps a fleet of 90 aircraft ready to fly, representing around 30 different designs. Annually, they tackle over 7,400 missions, including nearly 2,000 dedicated to testing, ensuring the Air Force stays ahead of the curve.
The Wing is also the parent unit to the famous Test Pilot School, where U.S. as well as allied top pilots, engineers, and navigators are trained. Their work isn’t just about precision—it’s about saving lives and safeguarding millions of dollars in equipment. Along with the flying activities, behind the scenes, divisions like Engineering and Electronic Warfare provide the expertise and state-of-the-art tools to evaluate everything from aircraft structures to advanced electronic warfare systems. In other words, together, the 412th Test Wing plays a crucial role in shaping the future of the Air Force.
The Wing’s responsibility on “multidisciplinary topics” that go beyond flight, meant that the commander also spoke the Chinese threat in the cyber domain. In fact, during the Back-in-the-Saddle Day Wickert highlighted years of relentless cyberattacks by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). He pointed out that malware has been embedded in critical U.S. infrastructure like power grids, water systems, and transportation networks, leaving the U.S. and its allies exposed.
“There are now at least a dozen telecom companies that admit they’ve been compromised,” he said, adding that this has left American networks open to surveillance of top government officials and their communications.
“The CCP knows every call my government phone has made for at least the last four years,” Wickert said. “And they’re still in there—we can’t get rid of them. That’s what uncertainty and risk look like. And it’s creating a very dangerous world right now.”
He also stressed how rapidly the PLA is advancing, saying its pace of modernization is “unprecedented” and far outstripping that of the United States.
As we have reported in detail, on Dec. 26, 2024, the Chinese aerospace industry unveiled two new combat aircraft in honor of Mao Zedong’s birthday. Wickert shared stark numbers: by 2027, in areas west of the international date line where U.S. assets are deployed, the PLA will outnumber U.S. forces about 12 to 1 in modern fighter jets (including 5 to 3 in fifth-generation aircraft) and 3 to 1 in maritime patrol planes. When it comes to bombers, the PLA’s fleet of 225 manned bombers faces no competition in the region. On the seas, the PLA has a 3-to-1 advantage in aircraft carriers and amphibious ships, more than 6-to-1 in advanced submarines, and a staggering 9-to-1 lead in modern multi-warfare combat ships.
After the impressive flight debut of what appear to be “sixth-generation” fighter jets developed in China on Dec. 26, 2024, there’s been growing chatter about whether the US and other Western countries might be falling behind the curve.
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In mid-December, the PLA Navy carried out the latest of a series of exercises surrounding Taiwan. Wickert called it the largest show of naval force since the end of World War II, three times larger than the U.S.-led RIMPAC exercise last summare, which involved 40 allied ships as well as many aircraft.
“We’ve never been smaller or had older equipment,” Wickert said. “Meanwhile, the PLA is the biggest and most modern it’s ever been. That’s risk. That’s uncertainty.”
During the December exercise, the PLA conducted mock airstrikes on ships, skirted Taiwan’s territorial waters, and formed a naval blockade designed to control sea and air routes to the island from the west.
Adding to their preparations, the PLA has also built a full-scale replica of Taiwan’s Taichung International Airport in the Gobi Desert, complete with runways, taxiways, and parking areas. Nearby, there’s a life-size outline of a U.S. Navy USS Gerald R. Ford-class aircraft carrier, along with mock-ups of U.S. destroyers that are set on rails to simulate evasive maneuvers.
“Do you think we don’t see what they’re up to or what they’re planning?” Wickert asked. “Now that you know all this, how does it change your view of the risks we face and how important our mission is here?”
After analyzing the imbalance of forces in the Pacific, the Wickert stressed the vital role of the work being done at Edwards Air Force Base, saying:
“This is why what we’re doing here matters so much. We’re innovating, modernizing, and working on projects that will force Chairman Xi to rethink his strategy. We can’t afford to take any steps back because of mistakes, our mission is too critical.”
Gesturing to an image of the B-21 Raider, the U.S. 6th generation bomber undergoing testing from Edwards AFB, Wickert added:
“This is just one example of the work you’re doing here that’s changing the game. It’s making Xi think twice about our readiness.”
The B-21, with an initial order of 100 aircraft and more to come, will replace the B-1 Lancer and B-2 Spirit as the cornerstone of Global Strike Command’s bomber fleet.
Wickert’s tone echoed a moment from his November 2024 Town Hall, where he spoke directly into the broadcast camera:
“I hope Chairman Xi has people translating this,” he said, “because I want him to know that the men and women at Edwards Air Force Base are already doing their wartime mission. We’re accelerating tests. We’re delivering integrated capabilities to the warfighter.”
Pointing back to an image of the Raider, he concluded, “Today is not the day to start World War III, because we have this.”
