The investigation on the crash of the Embraer E190 while attempting an emergency landing is still ongoing, however reports of a possible involvement of Russian air defenses are quickly spreading online.
On the morning of Dec. 25, 2024, the Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243, an Embraer 190 carrying 62 passengers and five crew members, crashed while attempting an emergency landing at Aktau Airport in Kazakhstan. According to the Kazakh government, 38 of the 67 people onboard have died, including the pilots.
The facts about Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243
Flight 8243 was scheduled to fly from Baku, Azerbaijan, to Grozny, Russia. The E190, registered as 4K-AZ65, departed at 03:55 UTC and the flight was uneventful until it entered Russian airspace. The aircraft stopped transmitting valid ADS-B position data at 04:25 UTC when the flight encountered significant GPS interference.
Full flight path of flight #J28243
The circle between 04:37 UTC and 04:40 UTC is GPS jamming and spoofing data.https://t.co/G5ctDNbKgP pic.twitter.com/SH9DGTPeXH
— Flightradar24 (@flightradar24) December 25, 2024
It is unclear what happened as the aircraft was approaching Grozny, however the flight was diverted to Aktau in Kazakhstan. According to the airline and Grozny’s airport, the aircraft had to be diverted because of the dense fog, although there are conflicting reports about the flight being first diverted to Makhachkala, before being ultimately diverted to Aktau.
The BBC quoted a surviving passenger who told Russian TV he believed the pilot had tried twice to land in Grozny. Flight Radar mentions that weather reports for Grozny at the time indicated visibility at the airfield was 3600 meters with low overcast clouds.
After transmitting intermittent and incomplete data for a while, the aircraft resumed the transmission of positional data at 06:07 UTC, while it was flying over the Caspian Sea towards Aktau. In an analysis of the recorded data, Flight Radar says that the aircraft was unable to maintain consistent altitude and speed for at least 75 minutes, starting from 05:13 UTC, further mentioning that data shows variable altitude reports of ±8,000 feet dozens of times and oscillating ground speed and vertical rate values (up to 8,300 ft/min).
During the final 74 minutes of flight #J28243 the vertical speed oscillated between positive and negative values more than 100 times with peak values at -8300 feet per min and +8300 feet per min. pic.twitter.com/UDrXvSQ8bu
— Flightradar24 (@flightradar24) December 25, 2024
Such behavior was evident in the videos which show the final phase of the flight, when the E190 approached Aktau. In fact, a video recorded from the ground, which immediately went viral, shows the aircraft climbing and descending in rapid succession, making a steep right turn possibly to align with the runway.
We have updated our post on #J28243 to include local pressure (1025 hPa) altitude corrections for the ADS-B data. ADS-B data is only reported in Standard pressure (1013.25 hPa). https://t.co/ECZ3sHa1Zg pic.twitter.com/aQhMC3j9lf
— Flightradar24 (@flightradar24) December 26, 2024
However, the E190, with its landing gear deployed but apparently no flaps, started to rapidly lose altitude during the turn. Although it appears pilot were trying to recover the aircraft, reducing the rate of descent, it impacted the ground at about 3 km from the airport.
Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer ERJ-190AR (4K-AZ65) passenger plane traveling from Baku to Grozny crashes near Aktau, Kazakhstan earlier today. There were 72 occupants including five crew members.
Six survivors are in critical condition. Pending any official confirmation,… pic.twitter.com/cjRzOrPzQ8
— FL360aero (@fl360aero) December 25, 2024
The video shows the aircraft bursting into flames when it impacted the ground, turning upside down and seemingly breaking in half. The front section of the aircraft was destroyed in the impact, while the detached tail remained largely intact.
Photos and videos from the ground, captured by both civilians and Kazakh emergency personnel, show punctures on the rear part of the fuselage and empennages, likely caused by shrapnel or debris. A closer video appears to show entry holes on the port side of the aircraft and exit holes on the opposite side.
Here one can see the difference between the port and starboard side of the aircraft’s vertical stabilizer. pic.twitter.com/I9Yey4xgfF
More from The Aviationist
— Oliver Alexander (@OAlexanderDK) December 25, 2024
Kazakh authorities have recovered the flight data recorder, also known as the black box, and an investigation has been launched. Criminal investigations have also been launched in Azerbaijan and Russia.
What caused the crash?
The causes of the crash are still unclear, with many conflicting reports and claims. What is known is that the pilot set the transponder to squawk 7700 at 05:35 UTC, the international code for a general emergency, with Interfax mentioning the pilots reported a failure of the control systems.
Among the various reports coming in is the report of a possible bird strike which involved a large flock of birds while landing in Grozny. The crew also reported a “strong impact on the fuselage,” according to Russian sources.
One of the surviving passengers told Russian TV that “something exploded” and “some of the aircraft skin had blown out.” An initial report from Kazakhstan’s emergency services mentioned that an oxygen cylinder on board might have exploded.
However, once photos and videos of the shrapnel damage emerged, the claims about a possible involvement of Russian air defenses started multiplication online. In fact, according to unconfirmed reports, Ukrainian drones were reported over Grozny at the same time the E190 was scheduled to land.
/3. Just as the plane was approaching Grozny, an air raid alert was issued in the region due to a kamikaze drone attack. And Russian air defense was actively engaged. pic.twitter.com/o8hQ1eF2vd
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) December 25, 2024
While this still needs to be verified, the pattern of the holes on the aircraft appears similar to the one which would be caused by the warhead of a surface-to-air missile, although the sizes vary. Some sources even went as far as stating that it is confirmed that a Russian Pantsir system mistakenly opened fire on the aircraft with its 57E6 missiles and/or its 2A38M 30 mm autocannons.
Experts being called in to assist by newspapers tend to agree that a bird strike might not have been enough to cause similar damage, which would more likely be caused by the explosion air defense missile to the rear and to the left of the aircraft. Similarly, Azerbaijan’s state TV said a preliminary investigation concluded that airliner was hit by a surface-to-air missile from a Russian Pantsir-S.
Baku expects Russia to acknowledge the incident, apologize to the Azerbaijani people, and hold those responsible accountable, Caliber reports. https://t.co/PNyvuzYePN
— Clash Report (@clashreport) December 26, 2024
The investigation, however, is still ongoing and there is no confirmation about the causes. The chief prosecutor’s office told the BBC that every version was being investigated, without confirming any of the reports.
In the meanwhile, Azerbaijan Airlines suspended all flights from Baku to Grozny and Makhachkala until the investigation is concluded.
Previous airliner shoot down incidents
The shoot down of a civilian airliner by the military is a rare occurrence, but the results are always tragic and the outcome sensational. However, similar events already happened in the past, with around 33 incidents reported, and most of the times these were the result of tragic errors in areas with military activity and high tension.
Once again, the investigation is still in progress and we are not going to suggest any specific narrative, instead bringing only a brief historical perspective. It is worth remembering what we wrote about one of the most recent accidental airliner shootdowns:
As sensational and tragic as the conversation over accidental shoot-downs of civil aircraft is, the key thing to remember about the conversation is maintaining the highest standards for investigation of incidents. In all instances, it is worth building some analytical distance between the incident and the explanation. This has become even more important in the age of social media where the volume of information greatly outstrips the credibility of information.
Two recent cases immediately come to mind, one of which involved Russia and was not too far away from the Caspian Sea.
As recently as July 17, 2014, Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 was shot down by a Buk surface-to-air missile. There were 298 fatalities in the crash of the Boeing 777-200ER. While questions continue to surround who was responsible for the incident, pro-Russia separatists forces near Donetsk engaged in a conflict for Shakhtarsk Raion region have been attributed to the launch of the missile.
On Jan. 8, 2020, Ukraine International Airlines’ flight PS752 was shot down shortly after take-off from Iran’s Imam Khomeini airport in Tehran. The aircraft, a Boeing 737-800, was flying with 176 people on board, none of which survived the crash. The Iranian military has reported accidentally shooting down the airliner with two surface-to-air missiles, reportedly the 9K331 Tor-M1, as components were found near the crash site.
