Following the quick downfall of Syria’s Assad regime, Moscow, which had a fairly large military presence in Syria, has been reevaluating the strategy in the Middle East.
According to a Syrian security official stationed outside Khmeimim Air Base, Russia’s largest air base in Syria, a Russian cargo plane departed from there and flew to Libya on Dec. 14, 2024. Some other flights have been tracked flying back to Russia, while others are flying from Russia to Libya.
The movements come as forces against the Assad regime – and the Russians as a result – ousted the dictator, and the political situation in Syria became increasingly unstable since many factions are vying for power. Although Russian media outlets reported that the rebels, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), guaranteed Moscow they would keep Russian bases safe, it does not necessarily mean that the Russians would not come under fire from other factions.
New satellite imagery taken today by @Maxar shows two Russian An-124 heavy transport aircraft at Hmemim airbase in Syria with their nose cones lifted and prepared to load. A Ka-52 attack helicopter is also seen being dismantled and likely prepared for transport. pic.twitter.com/eyDSQ377Mp
— Evan Hill (@evanhill) December 13, 2024
Russia’s relocation from Syria to Libya
Amidst the chaos of this unexpected coup, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) initially assessed that Russia is “very likely hesitant to completely evacuate all military assets from Syria.” This is especially due to its bases in the country being strategically very important to the Kremlin’s interests.
Also, these bases, in particular the larger Tartus naval base and Khmeimim air base, are the only significant, permanent Russian bases abroad and are vital in Russian efforts to keep a check on the Middle East. While initially established as simple outposts on Syrian bases, they later grew to become fortified permanent infratructures.
However, satellite images of the Russian bases in Syria taken in recent hours point to a possible rapid evacuation of these bases. At least two An-124 heavy transport aircraft, as well as numerous smaller Il-76 and An-72 cargo aircraft with their cargo doors open, have been seen on the satellite photos.
Follow-up: a Syrian Il-76T at Khmeimim in a recent drone video.
Moderate-high confidence it is YK-ATA. There hasn’t been any observed flight data from another Syrian Il-76 since the flight that started this thread. Sentinel-2 (12/10) & LandSat 8/9 (12/9) show an Il-76-sized plane in same spot.
— Evergreen Intel (@vcdgf555.bsky.social) 14 dicembre 2024 alle ore 16:52
At least one Ka-52 attack helicopter and some S-400 surface-to-air missile launchers have been dismantled, most probably for transportation via the cargo aircraft. Images from Syrian media also show a large group of people huddled near the hangars used by Su-34 fighter-bombers, taking baggage and suitcases with them, pointing towards a move of the personnel.
Those are a lot of people with suitcases standing on the flightline of an active air base.
Definitely looks like some people were leaving Russia’s Khmeimim Air Base in Syria earlier today.
Likely on the Russian Air Force An-72.
— Oliver Alexander (@oalexanderdk.bsky.social) December 13, 2024 at 4:42 AM
Videos recorded on the ground also appeared on social media, reportedly showing the Russians moving their equipment from smaller bases around Syria, such as Manbij and Kobanî, to the larger bases in Tartus and Khmeimim. Multiple convoys of both combat and support vehicles were seen on the move.
The videos show Russians leaving Syria
Russian troops from the military base in Tartus are moving in columns to the Russian Khmeimim air base where they are picked up by Il-76 cargo aircraft. Russians are also leaving their bases in the north of Syria -in Manbij and Kobanî.
📹: the Times journalist
— Anton Gerashchenko (@antongerashchenko.bsky.social) December 14, 2024 at 3:34 PM
Under these circumstances, some sources point towards Libya as the next focal point for Russia’s naval operations. Reports suggest that the Kremlin is attempting to secure a strategic base, both in terms of air and naval power, in Libya – much like its bases in Syria.
In fact, there are reports that reveal that Russian military leaders had already developed contingency plans to transfer some of its naval and air units from Syria to Libya, ensuring continuity of operations in the Middle East, even before the capital city of Damascus was seized by the rebels.
According to the reports, the instability before the fall of Assad might have already pushed Russia to start working to secure a strategic base in Libya, replicating the long-term lease of the Tartus naval facility in Syria. Russian frigates, such as the Gorshkov and Grigorovich, along with Kilo-class submarines already left their port in Syria and are staying at a safe distance.
Russia always had a strong interest in securing strategic, permanent access to the Mediterranean and Africa. The country already has a strong presence in Libya and this move could put Russian assets even closer to Europe’s and NATO’s southern borders.
Russia’s current influence in Libya
Libya has abundant resources; in fact, the country has the largest proven oil reserves in Africa and is among the top ten globally, with 48.36 billion barrels of oil reserves in 2021. Its resources, along with its geographically central location in the Mediterranean, make it an attractive option for a new base to be used to project power in the African continent.
Libya’s strategic position in the Mediterranean would strengthen Russia’s naval presence, which is otherwise hindered due to the largely frozen coastline around Russia. Eastern Libya, in particular, is a good potential location for the relocation, given that it is largely controlled by factions that are aligned with, or even friendly, to Russia. It would also allow Russia to ‘encircle’ NATO and Europe’s eastern and southern flank.
It is well known that Russia already has some military influence in Libya in the form of their former primary PMC (Private Military Contractor), the Wagner Group – which had a growing presence in Libya since at least 2018 – making it easier for the country’s military itself to take over the operation, if needed. Following the group’s attempted coup in Russia, the regiment in Libya, now absorbed in the regular military, has been known as the ‘Russian Afrika Korps’.
Libya is also a stringent ally of Russia, and most of its military equipment is sourced from Russia or former Soviet states. Although not much is known, the government’s Air Force, for example, is thought to operate a MiG-25, as well as Mi-17 and Mi-24/35 helicopters, alongside the LNA (Libyan National Army)’s MiG-21s, MiG-23s, and Su-22s. Notably, the LNA also operates MiG-29 fighters and Su-24 attack aircraft which were possibly flown by Russian mercenaries on behalf of the LNA.
If the Russians did indeed intend to expand their bases in Libya, it would not be too difficult to do so considering the mercenaries were already there and paved the ground for the arrival. By moving its contingent to Libya, Russia would enhance its already strong presence in Libya and bolster a new influence in Africa as part of a broader strategy to challenge European and NATO powers, while also having the ability to keep a watchful eye on the Middle East.
