While the service is gearing up to introduce the new B-21 and retire the B-1B and B-2A, the demand for the bombers is increasing with the mutated geopolitical situation.
In an interview to the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, the head of Air Force Global Strike Command (AFGSC), Gen. Thomas Bussiere, said the bomber fleet’s size might need to be reassessed as demand for bombers is growing. This, in turn, could require more B-21 Raider bombers beyond the currently 100 planned, so the bomber force would reach 220 aircraft to satisfy the requirements.
Current bomber fleet’s activity
“We have 141 bombers in the inventory, between the B-1, the B-2 and the B-52,” said Gen. Bussiere. “The demand signal for the bombers is greater than any time I’ve seen in my career, across the fabric of every geographic combatant command.”
The General noted the multiple operational commitments of the bomber fleet this year, such as the combat mission of the B-1Bs and B-2As in the Middle East and the B-52H Bomber Task Forces (BTF) currently in Europe and in the Middle East. Other BTF mission this year saw B-1s deploying to Sweden and Spain, B-52s to Diego Garcia, then again B-1s to Guam, B-52s to the U.K., B-2s to Australia and B-52s to Poland.
“The last 12 months have probably seen the highest level of activity across the globe, both in the European theater and the Indo-Pacific theater,” said Bussiere. “We’ve done more in the last 12 months than I think we’ve done in the last 20 years, with a fleet that’s fairly old and a force that’s fairly stressed based on the demand signal.”
As noted by Bussiere, the United States are currently recapitalizing all three legs of the nuclear triad. The AFGSC is in charge of the air leg and the land leg, with the B-52 and B-2 being 72 and 35 years old, respectively, and the Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) being 54 years old.
“While we recapitalize, we have to maintain that nuclear deterrent with a very aged system,” said the General. “The unique aspect of our business is we have to maintain full operational capability while we transition. That’s never been done and that’s a challenge when we’re doing it all the same time.”
B-21’s acquisition speed
Speaking about the recapitalization and the current geopolitical situation, with Russia and China becoming more aggressive, the conversation moves over to the B-21. The number of bombers to be acquired and the slow rate at which they will be delivered have often been at the center of discussions recently.
“I think most national security professionals would look at the B-21 and the current production schedule and go ‘We might want to consider evaluating whether or not we can accelerate that, based on the age of the B-2 and B-1 fleet,’” said Bussiere.
Recently, Northrop Grumman’s CEO Kathy Warden also stated that the company is ready to increase the production of the B-21 if requested by the service. Gen. Bussiere was specifically asked about this, confirming that there is already the possibility to do so, even before the need to open another production complex.
“If the Department of the Air Force, the Department of Defense, or Congress directs an accelerated ramp or more quicker for the B-21 program, there’s some capability growth within the current complex,” said Bussiere. “If there was a decision to really increase numbers and in a shorter time period, I’m not guessing that going to another company would be the most efficient way […], but more than likely it would require opening up another production complex if the Nation decides to do that.”
The increase of the production speed is an especially valid question if we consider the increasing age of the bombers and their decreasing availability due to failures and increasing maintenance needs. In fact, the latest report provided by the service mentions an average age of 61.8 years for the 76 B-52s, 36.4 years for the 45 B-1s and 27.75 years for the B-2s, with mission capable rates of 59.3%, 54.8% and 52.8%, well below the 75-80% the Air Force aims for.
B-21’s numbers
Another recurring topic lately is the increase of the number of bombers. The Chief of Staff, Gen. David Allvin, recently spoke about a possible ‘expanded’ role for the B-21, however he did not mention further B-21 acquisitions. Separately, Air Force officials said that 100 Raiders are sufficient to the current operational needs, while Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall said that the service is looking at options to increase the force size.
“In light of the threats that are out there and the demand signals for bombers, that’s a very valid discussion,” said Bussiere. “Normally, the answer is ‘Who would not want more long-range strike platforms?’, and it really gets down to the fundamentals of the budget. It’s a service budget issue, it’s a department budget issue and it’s a national budget issue.”
Definitely, the recent decrease of the B-21’s price would also play a role in this decision. In fact, in a rare instance for a defense acquisition program, as reported by Aviation Week, the B-21 budget for the first five production lots went from the $19.1 billion budgeted by the U.S. Air Force in 2023 to the $13.8 billion budgeted for 2025. With the decrease of the cost, Aviation Week says the first 21 B-21s might now cost “only” $668 million per bomber.
“There are several examples in the last five or ten years where we have evaluated what the proper fleet size should be. Right now the B-21 program is at least 100, that’s the program of record, but going back at least five years, both the Chief of Staff of the Air Force and the Secretary of the Air Force at the time have gone on record and testified before congress that 220 bombers, when we finally transition to the B-52J and B-21 fleet, is the number that the Air Force would need. That data and that fleet size probably needs to be revaluated based on the world as we see it today.”
In a further statement released to Breaking Defense, the head of AFGSC explained that a fleet of 220 bombers has been suggested for a while, and the final number “will be guided by the fact that no other U.S. ally or partner has an active bomber force, and our bombers provide the backbone of our military’s flexible global strike capability, which is also the foundation of our extended deterrence umbrella for our allies and partners. “
Additionally, “The number of bombers in the fleet will be informed by the threat, the National Defense Strategy, the budget, deployment/employment demand signals, and most importantly decisions by policy makers,” he continued. Anyway, officials said earlier this year to Congress that the final decision won’t come before a decade.
Future bomber fleet
The Air Force has long stated that its future bomber force will see the B-1 and B-2 retire, while the upgraded B-52 will continue to work together with the B-21. AFGSC has in fact already said that there might not be the budget and manpower to support four different types of bombers.
“The concept of what the force mix would be […] is a two-bomber force between the B-21, the ability to penetrate heavily defended target areas and hold them at risk, [and the B-52J]. That mix between stand-in and stand-off is really a byproduct of cost, the weapons needed to affect whatever we have been directed to affect on any potential target.”
The General explained that the command is looking at “what capabilities are required to affect whatever is required on any potential target anywhere in the world.” This is in line with similar comments made recently by Maj. Gen. Jason R. Armagost, commander of 8th Air Force, who mentioned that the decisions are not only about the number of bombers, but also “about targets and target requirements and deterrents.”
“Right now, the Air Force is looking at 75 B-52Js, which is a long-range standoff bomber, and then the B-21 as a very exquisite penetrating bomber,” said Bussiere detailing the future bomber force. Obviously, the 75 B-52s are the one already in service, so, should the service decide to go to a 220-bomber fleet, the B-21s should increase to 145 instead of the 100 currently planned.
CCAs and B-21
Another recurrent topic lately is the introduction of the Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA). In the past, it has been suggested that the CCAs would also work in conjunction with the B-21 Raider, although mainly intended to support fighters.
“It’s a logical question to ask whether or not long-range strike would benefit from the CCA concept,” said Bussiere. £I think we’re going to let the fighter force kind of mature that concept with Inc. 1 [Increment 1] of the CCA and then we’ll be prepared to integrate that into the Long-Range Strike Family of Systems, probably at a later date, if directed.”
The Air Force made the decision to continue funding Anduril and General Atomics for the next phase of the CCA program earlier this year. The service is currently refining the specifications for the CCAs, particularly regarding the range and payload, to align with the operational needs of drones supporting crewed fighters.
“It’s a reasonable question to ask whether or not there is some value to pairing Long-Range Strike platforms with CCAs,” further added the General. “The obvious limitation, probably, that we would have to consider is the range. Long-Range Strike platforms have significantly longer ranges than the current design CCAs. That would be considered as we go forward, but right now we don’t actually have that in the plan.”
