In the latest of a series of questions about the ageing Hawk T1 fleet, Minister of State Maria Eagle confirmed the aerobatic team’s aircraft are expected to remain in service until 2030.
Conservative Member of Parliament (MP) Ben Obese-Jecty has forwarded three written questions regarding the BAE Systems Hawk T1 aircraft to the Ministry of Defence (MoD) since the beginning of the current Parliament.
The latest question, answered by Maria Eagle, Minister of State for Defence Procurement, on Jan. 16, 2025 requested details on the remaining airframe life of each Hawk T1 aircraft that remains in service with the Royal Air Force. A prior question saw the Ministry confirm that 26 Hawk T1s remain in service.
The Red Arrows, officially known as the Royal Air Force Aerobatic Team (RAFAT), are the sole remaining operator of the Hawk T1 in UK service after 736 Naval Air Squadron and 100 Squadron RAF were decommissioned on Mar. 31, 2022.
Statistics released in response to the most recent question reveal the serial numbers of those 26 airframes – and confirms that, at the time the information was gathered, 14 of these Hawks are active while the remaining 12 are in what the MoD terms the sustainment fleet. Aircraft in the sustainment fleet are not necessarily retired from use but are in deep maintenance or upgrade programs, or long-term storage.
Of the Hawk T1s in the active fleet, XX242 has the least expected life remaining, having used 94.65% of its fatigue index. XX242, delivered to the RAF in 1978, is one of the team’s longest serving airframes and has now been with them for over 20 years. XX239, also from 1978, joined the Red Arrows in 2022 and had used up 75.17% of its airframe life. The average fatigue index used across the fleet is 83.42%.
Aircraft in the sustainment fleet have used between 68.31% and 79.91% of their total hours, averaging to 73.43%. These aircraft will likely be reactivated on an individual basis as those in the active fleet approach their maximum allowed service life.
The Future
While, as the Minister confirmed, the service life remaining across the fleet will likely be able to sustain Hawk T1 operations until 2030, there will be a very limited capacity to continue beyond that. This raises major questions for the future of the Red Arrows team, who would be left without an aircraft to fly.
When the team converted to the Hawk T1 in 1979, the requirements of the display unit in comparison to the wider force was relatively minimal. Needing around a dozen aircraft to support the display flight of nine, it represented only a small portion of the RAF’s total inventory of 175 Hawk T1 aircraft. As a side note, the current fleet requirements for the Red Arrows have increased slightly since becoming the sole Hawk T1 operator, as the squadron must now also conduct all pilot conversion, flight testing, trials and the like for the aircraft type.
Today, with a smaller air force and more modern training practices, the RAF’s total fleet of Hawk T2s, which replaced the T1 as a jet trainer, numbers only 28. To accommodate a display flight of the Red Arrows’ size within this fleet would be unsustainable even in normal circumstances, but with the well documented unreliability of the Hawk T2 airframe it might well be impossible.
It would be easy to just say that the aerobatic team’s aircraft requirements can simply be built into any future order for a new jet trainer, but some commentators have asked whether this could be justified under the heavily stretched MoD budget. The expense of maintaining the team, as well as recent reports of inappropriate behaviour among members of the team, have generated calls from both inside and outside the armed forces to disband the unit entirely.
Undeniably, though, among both British crowds and those abroad, the Red Arrows remain an incredibly popular attraction – arguably the ‘star’ attraction at almost any event they attend. Even outside of airshows, when the Red Arrows perform a solo display at one of many British seaside venues, the roughly 20-minute show will easily draw crowds in the high tens of thousands.
They are seen with such prestige in the United Kingdom that when the country hosted the 2021 G7 Conference in Carbis Bay, Cornwall, the Red Arrows were selected to perform a special display over St Ives Bay aimed to entertain foreign heads of state including U.S. President Joe Biden, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and French President Emmanual Macron.
In Ben Obese-Jecty’s first question on the Hawk T1 topic, back in October 2024, he asked about the intended replacement of the aircraft. Maria Eagle subsequently reported that no decision has been taken on this matter, and a decision would not be expected until after the Strategic Defence Review due in 2025.
As a follow-on purchase for more Hawk T2s seems unlikely given recent troubles, the RAF will likely need to look elsewhere. The options available for a future jet trainer are by no means limited. As discussed in an earlier article, the UK could go for commonality with the U.S. Air Force and select the T-7A Red Hawk, or side with GCAP partner Italy and procure the Leonardo M-346. With UK defence cooperation with Türkiye a steady influence, the Turkish Aerospace Industries Hürjet may also be an attractive proposition.
For the Red Arrows, one problem is that none of these aircraft do what the team has always done with their Folland Gnat and BAE Hawk aircraft – represent British aerospace engineering. On their website, the team states they “act as ambassadors for the United Kingdom at home and overseas and promote the best of British”.
BAE Systems have been a sponsor of the Red Arrows for over 25 years, and maintain a close publicity link with the team. BAE may be able to secure a deal with another manufacturer to produce parts for, or assemble, another type of jet trainer locally in the United Kingdom, but they would be forced to essentially give up hope on the Hawk product, and this option would likely never be seen as truly ‘British’.
Aeralis – The Ambitious British Option
For some years, the UK-based startup company Aeralis has been proposing and developing its Advanced Jet Trainer. Aeralis has worked with the Royal Air Force as well as the Military Aviation Authority, but the project has been a slow burn. In March 2024, Aeralis stated their aim to fly a demonstrator aircraft by 2026 and offer a service-ready platform by 2030. This is a highly ambitious timeframe for a newly designed aircraft and offers no leeway in case of development snags and delays.
It would be difficult, not to mention unpopular, should the Red Arrows end up needing to disband in 2030 in order to wait several years for a replacement aircraft to be ready. Pilot training is maintained through rotational service periods – three pilots join the team every year, and the usual term of service is three years. An exception is made for the flight lead, Red 1, who is selected for the three year tour after completing their normal three years with the team.
Even during the COVID-19 pandemic, the team remained together despite only conducting a handful of flypasts as even a year spent inactive would disrupt the process and see the knowledge base of the team scattered across the rest of the Royal Air Force, perhaps not to return afterwards.
Aeralis is aware of the pressing need, and the favorable position they may find themselves in should they demonstrate an ability to meet their 2030 schedule. A programme launch from the company is due in 2025, from which we might be able to glean a better insight into their plans.
