The review was initially expected to conclude by the end of 2024, however the Air Force has now opted to defer the final decision to the new administration, and thus postponing it after Jan. 20.
The U.S. Air Force has announced that key decisions regarding the highly anticipated Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program will be deferred to the incoming Trump administration. The program has been undergoing since this summer an extensive review, expected to conclude by the end of 2024.
The new delay
“The Secretary of the Air Force will defer the Next Generation Air Dominance way ahead decision to the next administration, while the Department of the Air Force continues its analysis and executes the necessary actions to ensure decision space remains intact for the NGAD program,” Air Force spokesperson Ann Stefanek said in a statement on Dec. 5, 2024.
In order to not stop the works and allow the design to further progress while waiting for the decision, Stefanek added that the Air Force “is extending the current Technology Maturation and Risk Reduction contracts for the Next Generation Air Dominance program to further mature designs/systems while ensuring the industry teams remain intact.”
To account the impact of the new delays with the program, the Air Force has also requested that bidding vendors “update their proposals,” Stefanek said, noting that they are a “schedule/milestone update only.” The Air Force, in fact, was expected to award a contract for NGAD this year.
The new delays, however, mean that the program’s review will be extended at least until Jan. 20, 2025, the inauguration date for the Trump administration. Then, the time needed to confirm the staff for the new administration should be accounted, before actual decisions can be taken.
It is yet unclear what will happen and the opinion of the new administration about NGAD has not yet been disclosed. However, Trump’s key advisor Elon Musk, which will head the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), has been highly critic of the F-35 and new manned aircraft.
In fact, Musk said that “manned fighter jets are obsolete in the age of drones” and “will just get pilots killed,” referring to the F-35 as the “worst military value for money in history.” He later added that “idiots are still building manned fighter jets like the F-35,” causing Lockheed Martin’s share price to drop by more than 3%.
The NGAD Review
The NGAD program was initially envisioned as a successor to the F-22 Raptor, a new cutting-edge air superiority platform designed to outmatch advanced adversaries in highly contested environments. The centerpiece of the program is a manned 6th-generation fighter, but with rising costs (expected to be in the hundreds of millions apiece) and rapid advancements in autonomous technologies, the Air Force has paused to reassess its approach.
The objective of the review is to reassess the requirements for the 6th generation fighter and explore whether the current development strategy aligns with the evolving threat landscape and budget realities. The results could reshape the program, shifting focus from a manned 6th generation fighter jet to a more cost-effective and technologically advanced system of systems.
Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall has emphasized the importance of this review, indicating that it will determine whether the Air Force needs to move forward with the manned NGAD fighter as planned or shift to a distributed, multi-platform strategy. The review will also explore how unmanned systems, particularly Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCAs), can complement or even replace traditional fighter jets in some roles.
The B-21 Raider also appears to be involved in the review, as the Air Force is evaluating an ‘expanded’ role for the new stealth bomber in the future of air dominance. Let’s not forget that the B-21 has also been defined as the world’s first 6th generation aircraft.
The Review: Rethinking the Role of Manned 6th Gen Aircraft
Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall initiated a “strategic pause” earlier this year to ensure the NGAD meets the operational needs of modern warfare, which now increasingly involves autonomous systems such as Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA). With this review, the service is “going back to the beginning” to re-examine its fundamental requirements for a 6th-generation crewed fighter.
“From a requirements perspective, what I would say is we’re going back and starting at the beginning with ‘What is the thing we’re trying to do?’” said the Vice Chief of Staff James C. Slife. “‘How do we achieve air superiority in a contested environment?’ would be one way to frame the question. A different way to frame the question would be, ‘How do we build a sixth-gen manned fighter platform?’ I mean, those are not necessarily the same question.”
The initial focus was on creating a high-end fighter with cutting-edge capabilities, but now, the emphasis is shifting toward a more integrated approach that considers the roles of CCAs, bombers like the B-21, and a distributed network of capabilities. The unmanned platforms could serve alongside manned fighters, reducing the reliance on a traditional, highly expensive 6th generation crewed aircraft.
One of the most critical aspects driving the review is the rising cost of the NGAD program, with the estimated price reaching several hundred million dollars per aircraft. The Air Force, under Kendall, is pushing for a leaner and more efficient program, exploring ways to break up the NGAD’s capabilities across multiple platforms to lower the overall cost.
This could mean a reduced emphasis on a single, all-encompassing fighter jet, favoring a networked approach that includes unmanned systems, bombers, and more affordable fighters. Kendall already anticipated that the program might drastically change to lower its unit cost below the one of the F-35, with Slife suggesting a new approach which would involve distributing capabilities among different assets.
“We’ve gotten to a point where [with] our systems-level integration, we have the ability to disaggregate these capabilities and look at air superiority more broadly,” Slife said. “So the radar may be in one location, the munition may be in another location.”
