Ukraine claims that Russia has used an ICBM to strike Dnipro; other Western sources say it was a “new” ballistic missile.
Russia launched what some reports claim was an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) toward Ukraine, the Ukrainian Air Force (UkrAF) announced on the morning of Thursday, Nov. 21, 2024.
❗ Сьогодні вночі росіяни, як заявили у @KpsZSU, вперше вдарили по Україні міжконтинентальною балістичною ракетою середньої дальності.
На відео зафіксований ранок 21 листопада у Дніпрі. pic.twitter.com/DR5bLyzbHC
— Повернись живим (@BackAndAlive) November 21, 2024
According to the UkrAF, the missile targeted the Dnipro region, approximately 450 km from Kyiv. It was tracked alongside six additional missiles, all launched within a two-hour span starting at around 5 a.m. Of these, only the ICBM reportedly struck its target, while the other six were intercepted and shot down en route. The UkrAF did not specify the type of ICBM allegedly used but stated that Ukraine is conducting examinations to determine its characteristics. This claim has not yet been independently verified.
Ukrainian President Zelensky:
“Today, there was a new Russian missile. All the characteristics – speed, altitude – are of an intercontinental ballistic missile. Analysis is currently underway. It is obvious that Putin is using Ukraine as a testing ground.”… pic.twitter.com/mkmEX15Twl
— Status-6 (Military & Conflict News) (BlueSky too) (@Archer83Able) November 21, 2024
Several clips were shared online, all clearly show several MIRVs (multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles) impacting a target area said to be the headquarters of a Ukrainian aerospace company. A MIRV is a system used in some intercontinental ballistic missiles that allows a single missile to carry several warheads. Each of these warheads can be aimed at a different target, making the missile capable of striking multiple locations in one launch. Think of it as a rocket carrying several small packages, each with its own delivery address, allowing for greater efficiency and increased destructive potential.
In this case, they were possibly inert warheads relying on kinetic energy or very small conventional warheads, as no visible explosion can be seen.
CLEAR footage shows alleged Russian ICBM strike on Ukraine’s Dnipro last night.
Multiple warheads were spotted in the footage. pic.twitter.com/H9qel6m8Dc
— Clash Report (@clashreport) November 21, 2024
Better footage of the alleged impacts of multiple warheads separated from a Russian ICBM in Dnipro earlier today. https://t.co/YlAQcFFDDu pic.twitter.com/LnLkjKNT5z
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— Status-6 (Military & Conflict News) (BlueSky too) (@Archer83Able) November 21, 2024
However, an unnamed Western official told ABC News that the missile in question was not an ICBM but rather a ballistic missile. The official did not elaborate further, citing that damage assessments were still ongoing. Additionally, if the launch had been a true ICBM, Russia would have been required to provide an advance launch notification, which it did not.
According to the UK Secretary of State for Defence, it was a “new” ballistic missile whose preparations for launch were known for quite some time.
Defence secretary @JohnHealey_MP said it was a “new” ballistic missile that was used in Ukraine, preparations for launch of which had been ongoing for months.
— Tony Osborne (@Rotorfocus) November 21, 2024
Russia has not commented on the matter so far. Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesperson, redirected all inquiries to the Russian Ministry of Defense. Meanwhile, Maria Zakharova, the spokesperson for the Russian Foreign Ministry, was reportedly instructed during a news conference not to discuss the missile strike in the Dnipro region. According to CNN, a voice was overheard telling Zakharova that the topic was “forbidden to speak about—don’t comment at all.”
The official representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia, Zakharova, received a call from the “high offices” during a press briefing and was asked not to comment on the claims about the strikes on Ukraine with an intercontinental ballistic missile. pic.twitter.com/e0NpMGdKww
— Clash Report (@clashreport) November 21, 2024
This incident comes a day after the UkrAF’s first use of U.S.-supplied ATACMS missiles against Russian targets earlier this week. It may represent an escalating response from Russia to Ukraine’s deployment of these advanced weapons. If the missile was indeed an ICBM, it could have been intended as a message to Ukraine and the West. ICBMs are expensive and relatively inaccurate for conventional use but could serve as a demonstration of Russia’s willingness and capability to use such weapons, potentially even nuclear ones.
Regarding reports about ICBM fired by Russia to Dnipro. My take is that one must be skeptical and cautious. Regarding the “intercontinental” claim, the distance from Kapustin Yar to Dnipro is about 800 km. It’s not an intercontinental range. But it’s complicated. Short thread 1/
— Pavel Podvig (@russianforces) November 21, 2024
Putin has stated that the missile used was a development version based off of the RS-26. The intermediate range ballistic missile was named the Oreshnik, meaning hazelnut tree in Russian, and used a MIRV payload. The Russian president has claimed that the Oreshnik flies at mach 10 and will overwhelm U.S. supplied air defense systems. U.S. military officials have noted, however, that Russia is unlikely to have many of these missiles in stock as it is still in its experimental phase. “We believe that we have the right to use our weapons against military facilities of the countries that allow us to use their weapons against our facilities,” said Putin in his first public comments since the strike, and that the Russians would respond in a “mirror way” to the “escalation of aggressive actions” by Ukraine. He also added that they would warn Ukraine in case of further attacks using Oreshnik, to provide time for civilians to escape, something Russia has not previously done.
U.S. officials have also said that they received a strike notice preceding the attack.
