This Week’s DPRK Launch Test Opens New Tensions with Sophisticated Missile.
On Nov. 29, 2017, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) tested a new, claimed-longer range ICBM called the Hwasong-15. It was launched from a ballistic missile test facility in South Pyongan Province, North Korea.
The launch test was significant for two reasons.
This Wednesday’s test followed over two months without any North Korean ICBM launch tests and was punctuated by a U.S. Presidential visit to neighboring China and Asia. Some analysts suggested the two events may have signaled the beginning of moderation in the ongoing North Korean crisis.
In opposition to the theory of impending détente, this week’s North Korean missile test proved to be a continued escalation of tensions. The missile launched for the first time this week was an ICBM not previously reported by the U.S. The new missile, the Hwasong-15, has longer claimed range than any prior North Korean ICBM. Hours after the test North Korea’s official news agency claimed the Hwasong-15, “could strike anywhere in the U.S.”
Official North Korean news sources claimed the Hwasong-15 reached an altitude of approximately 2,700 miles – well above the orbital altitude for the International Space Station – and covered nearly 600 miles in horizontal distance moving east toward Japan during its 53-minute flight. This launch test was predominantly vertical in trajectory. North Korea claimed the missile, “hit its intended target” in the Pacific near Japan. If the trajectory of the Hwasong-15 were altered to a more horizontal geometry the missile could theoretically cover substantial distance. In a statement following the launch test the Union of Concerned Scientists, a non-profit think tank headquartered in Massachusetts, voiced concern that the missile’s range was, “more than enough to reach Washington D.C., albeit with a reduced payload.”
In typically theatric tone, a North Korean newscaster proclaimed, “After watching the successful launch of the new type ICBM Hwasong-15, Kim Jong Un declared with pride that now we have finally realized the great historic cause of completing the state nuclear force, the cause of building a rocket power!”
In what appears to be a staged photo (there is no missile track on the monitors) North Korean leader Kim Jong-un reacts to eat Hwasong-15 missile test. (Photo: North Korean Media)
This Wednesday’s North Korean missile launch test of the new Hwasong-15 was first detected by one of only four South Korean Air Force 737 AEW&C (Airborne Early Warning & Control) aircraft, called “Peace Eye”. The surveillance aircraft (based on the Boeing 737 airliner) were delivered to South Korea between May and October of 2012. They are based at Gimhae Air Base. South Korea claims the missile was detected, “within one minute of launch”. The missile was soon also observed on radar by at least one South Korean Navy Sejong-the-Great class destroyer at sea using their AN/SPY-1D antennae and Aegis Combat System.
A South Korean Air Force 737 AEWC “Peace Eye” surveillance aircraft detected the missile launch. (Photo: Boeing)
Along with the E7, several other aircraft were monitoring the launch, including a U.S. Air Force RC-135S Cobra Ball aircraft from Offutt Air Force Base, Nebraska, deployed to Kadena, Okinawa, Japan, able to track ballistic missiles reentry vehicles and warheads during the final phase of flight; and a USAF E-8C JSTARS.
According to media reports in Asia, “Two minutes after the North Korean missile launch at 3:17 AM local time Wednesday morning, South Korean President Moon Jae-in was briefed about the provocation by his top security adviser. Six minutes after the launch, the South Korean military staged a live-fire missile exercise, in an apparent display of its response capabilities to strike the North Korean origin of provocations. At 6 a.m., the South Korean president held a meeting with the National Security Council at the Blue House bunker.”
Noteworthy observations about the newly observed Hwasong-15 include a new mobile launch platform. The wheeled platform shown in a photo released by North Korean media is larger than previously observed versions. Launching the missile from a mobile platform makes locating it prior to launch more difficult, a problem that was underscored during the first U.S./Iraq war when a significant amount of resources were devoted to finding the mobile Scud missile launchers in the Iraqi desert that were targeting Israel and Saudi Arabia.
North Korean Hwasong-15 in launch position of mobile launcher. (Photo: North Korean Media)
Military intelligence source Global Security.org reported that South Korean military officials said the maximum range projections for the Hwasong-15 could only be achieved if two key technologies of a nuclear-armed ICBM have been secured: the technology for the warhead and guidance system to survive an atmospheric re-entry and the technology to miniaturize the warhead and guidance payload. It has not been confirmed if North Korea has achieved those technological milestones.
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace fellow Zhao Tong, an expert in the Nuclear Policy Program at Carnegie’s Tsinghua Center for Global Policy in Beijing, China, told Global Security.org that this latest successful launch test of North Korea’s Hwasong-15, “could mean that the DPRK thinks it has achieved all the basic technical capabilities of a credible nuclear force and therefore no major missile tests are needed anymore. If this is the case, this could potentially open a window to de-escalate tension in the near-term future and may increase the chances of diplomatic engagement with North Korea.”
Claimed range of the new North Korean Hwasong-15 ICBM. (Photo: Union of Concerned Scientists)
This batch follows the first six jets delivered at the end of October.
The second batch of five F-16AMs and one two seater BM jet, formerly belonging to the Royal Netherlands Air Force, visited Aviano Air Base, Italy, on Nov. 29.
The Jordan “Vipers” (as the F-16 is nicknamed in the pilot community), using radio callsign RJZ242, were on their way from Volkel airbase, The Netherlands, to Al Azraq airbase, in Jordan (via Aviano – Souda Bay), on delivery to the Royal Jordanian Air Force. The six aircraft followed the previous six ex-RNlAF F-16 aircraft, delivered via the same route on Oct. 25, 2017.
The only two-seater of the second batch of former RNlAF F-16s about to land at Aviano AB, Italy, on Nov. 29.
In a deal signed in 2013, 15 airframes (13 A-models and 2 B-models updated to the MLU standard) were sold to Jordan as part of the Peace Falcon VI programme bringing the total RJAF F-16 to 79 (including 25 second-hand aircraft bought from Belgium within Peace Falcon III and V).
One of the five single seat F-16 in the RJAF markings landing at Aviano AB, Italy, on Nov. 29.
The latest deal follows a first one for 6 ex-RNlAF F-16BMs dating back to 2009 and dubbed Peace Falcon IV.
The first batch of six F-16s delivered to the RJAF on Oct. 25, 2017, found better weather conditions at their arrival in Aviano for a stopover enroute to Jordan.
The Aviationist’s contributor Claudio Tramontin took the photos of the “new” F-16s for the RJAF at Aviano that you can find in this post. Top image shows one of the F-16s of the first batch departing from Aviano after the stopover on Oct. 25.
Lt. Col. Jason Heard, Thunderbird #1, Relieved Due to “Loss of Confidence”
Lt. Col. Jason Heard of the U.S. Air Force Flight Demonstration Squadron, The Thunderbirds, has been relieved of command, the USAF Air Combat Command said today in a news release. The official reason cited for his removal from the position was a “loss of confidence’.
According to most definitions, military “loss of confidence” is when a party is, “inadequate in some respect, are failing to carry out obligations, or are making decisions that other members feel are detrimental.”
Lt. Col. Heard was relieved by USAF Brig. Gen. Jeannie Leavitt, 57th Wing commander at Nellis AFB. In a statement released by the U.S. Air Force, Brig. Gen Leavitt was quoted as saying, “This was an incredibly difficult decision to make, but one that is ultimately in the best interests of the Thunderbird team.” Brig. Gen. Leavitt went on to say in the release. “I am personally grateful for Jason’s dedication to the 2017 season.”
The official statement said, “Lt. Col. Heard led the team through a highly successful show season,” but that Brig. Gen. Leavitt, “lost confidence in his leadership and risk management style.”
The Thunderbirds experienced one accident under the command of Lt. Col. Heard. On June 23, 2017, during an orientation flight for an enlisted maintenance team member, Thunderbird #8, piloted by Capt. Erik “Speedy” Gonsalves, slid off a runway the day before the Vectren Dayton Airshow in Dayton, Ohio. It was raining at the time. The Thunderbird F-16 rolled during the accident and came to rest upside down. An official accident report later read, “Upon landing, the pilot was unable to stop the aircraft on the prepared surface. As a result, the aircraft departed the runway and overturned in the grass,” The F-16 involved in the accident was written-off.
In part of an e-mail sent to Aviation Week’s Lara Seligman, a spokesperson for the Thunderbirds, said the leadership change was, “unrelated to the Dayton incident.”
UPDATE: a @AFThunderbirds public affairs officer tells me the decision had nothing to do with the Dayton crash. Here is the full statement pic.twitter.com/4lGzBbdxVn
“This decision was based on Brig. Gen. Leavitt having lost confidence in Lt. Col. Heard’s leadership in risk management style. While he led a highly successful 2017 show season featuring 72 demonstrations over 39 show sites, concerns arose that his approach to leading the team was resulting in increased risk within the demonstration which eroded the team dynamic, ” Thunderbird spokesperson wrote in the email.
The Thunderbirds’ operations officer, Lt. Col. Kevin Walsh, has assumed interim command of the team until a new commander is selected, according to Air Combat Command.
Top image: The U.S. Air Force Thunderbirds taxi to their parking area During Aviation Nation 2017 Air Show at Nellis AFB while one pilot shoots a photo from his cockpit. (Photo: Tom Demerly/TheAviationist.com)
A pretty interesting video that includes g-forces details: – 3 to +9g.
Disclaimer: the following video is obviously marketing stuff. Still, it’s interesting enough to deserve a post on this blog.
It shows the Saab Gripen display, filmed with a camera attached to the pilot’s helmet complemented by acceleration details. Therefore, it gives an idea of the g-forces on André Brännström, Saab test pilot, as he performs extreme aerobatics with the JAS-39 Gripen C light single-engine multirole fighter aircraft. Note the g-units going up and down from +9 to – 3!
The aircraft in the C/D variants is operated by the Air Forces of Sweden, Czech Republic, Hungary, South Africa and Thailand. The Brazilian Air Force ordered 28 Gripen E and 8 Gripen F aircraft with 72 more to be ordered.
The Gripen E is a new multirole variant of the Swedish fighter based on the proven C/D platforms tailored for the future Network Centric Warfare (NCW) environment. The aircraft is much similar to its predecessors, an IRST bump in front of the cockpit in the nose section as well as the missile warning system on the air intakes are the main external differentiators. According to Saab, Gripen E offers operational dominance and flexibility with superior mission survivability. Air-to-air superiority is guaranteed with METEOR, AMRAAM, IRIS-T, AIM-9 missile capability and supercruise.
Air-to-surface capability is assured through the use of the latest generation precision weapons and targeting sensors. Gripen E’s superior situation awareness is ensured through an AESA radar, IRST passive sensor, HMD, cutting-edge avionics, next generation data processing and a state-of-the-art cockpit.
Missile Test Reported to have Landed in East Sea Between Korea and Japan.
Defense sources and the Japanese Prime Minister’s office have confirmed the launch of a new North Korean ballistic missile test. The test, which took place within the last several hours from South Pyongan Province early Wednesday Nov. 29 local time, is now being reported across international media.
“We confirm that we have detected a North Korean ballistic missile launch. The missile is still travelling towards the direction to the East Sea, as we are monitoring right now,” a South Korean military official told media in South Korea several hours ago. Other unconfirmed sources indicate the missile has since landed in the sea.
Sometime after the first mentions began to appear in Asian media the Japanese Prime Minister’s Office tweeted, “A missile was launched from North Korea which appears to have landed within Japan’s exclusive economic zone. As soon as new information comes in, we will let you know.”
The Pentagon tweeted, “We detected a probable missile launch from North Korea. We are in the process of assessing the situation and will provide details when available.”
The last North Korean ballistic missile test took place in September 2017. That missile was identified as a Hwasong-12, referred to in the U.S. as the KN-17. The Hwasong-12 has an estimated range of between 2,300 and 3,700 miles (3,700-6000 kilometers).
The type of missile in today’s test has not yet been reported.
Reports from earlier this week from U.S. intelligence sources to Reuters news agency suggested North Korea intended a missile launch test “within days”.
Today’s test is the first North Korean missile test since September 15, 2017. (Photo: Phoenix777)
This latest reported missile test is significant since it follows a brief period of relative calm in the region since the September 15, 2017 test that may have provided the opportunity for new back-channel communication via China in the interest of maintaining stability in the region.
Top image: File photo of previous North Korean missile test from 2017. (Yonhap)
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